By Emily Estelle
Libyan factions’ fight for control of the country’s oil resources may set in motion a larger conflict between rival power centers.
A coalition of militias led by the Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB), an Islamist militia linked to Ansar al Sharia, seized the al Sidra and Ras Lanuf oil terminals from the Libyan National Army (LNA) on March 3.
The BDB has indicated that it will cede control of the terminals to Libya’s National Oil Company and forces aligned with the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA).
The LNA’s response may lead to direct conflict with the GNA and its backers, igniting an east vs. west conflict similar to the 2014 civil war.
War in the oil crescent would also overstretch the LNA in Benghazi, where it improved security in 2016 but now faces a renewed Islamist insurgency.
The surging conflict may also harm Libya’s oil-dependent economic recovery and draw security resources away from western Libya.
Emily Estelle is an analyst for CTP.