Abdullah Alkabir
Despite tragedies and destruction left behind by wars, there is a positive side to them, which does not appear clearly to anyone who is not looking thoroughly with a scrutinizing eye to monitor their repercussions and changes.
The end of any war is usually the end of a phase and the beginning of another new one. From the pools of blood and tears, and a midst wailing and groaning, a new reality emerges, different from the preceded one.
Throughout history, wars have been the most important engines of human progress; politically, intellectually, economically and scientifically. Many manifestations of scientific progress were the key outcome of wars.
This is a long story that will not be addressed in this article. Rather, the purpose is to monitor the accelerated developments that followed the war of Saturday, August 27, in several areas in and around Tripoli, which speeded up the political moves to find a way towards a political solution that puts an end to the crisis of legitimacy, and limits the resorting to the force of guns.
The most important developments after the settling down of the battles’ dust were as follows:
Arrest warrants and travel bans were issued by the Military Prosecutor, against prominent figures of the political scene from the February leadership. Their fame and contribution to Revolution and subsequent wars against ISIS and Haftar did not stand in the way of enforcing the law.
The rush of members of the High Council of State (HCS), some of whom are aligned with the House of Representatives (HoR), and the Bashagha government deal, to issue a statement calling for parliamentary elections, and no doubt their fear of people’s wrath, as they are accomplices in all calamities that befell the country, is what prompted them to issue such statement.
Regional and international moves sensed that the continued abortion of the elections means that the armed conflict will continue.
Al-Mashri and Aqila rushed to meet to discuss the constitutional basis and election laws, or in other words, contain the repercussions of the war, and cooperate to maintain their dominance of the political scene.
Turkish diplomatic moves seek to calm the situation in its areas of influence, while its opponents’ (that is Russia and Egypt) areas of influence are calmer.
An American move to push for the nomination of the new UN envoy, after an eight-month failure since the resignation of former envoy Jan Kubis.
Many personalities and municipal councils repudiated the government mandated by Parliament, and declared their support for the Government of National Unity, which strengthened its position and became more powerful.
Eliminating the undisciplined militias in Tripoli, and then reduce their number, and concentrate the force in only about six factions.
The important question here. Are there civil leaders and organizations that can seize this opportunity, and mobilize the street to exert more pressure through peaceful movement, with a firm and non-negotiable position, which is commitment to holding parliamentary elections, and rejecting any extension of the current entities?
The international position in support of elections, the limited maneuvering space before the parties wishing to prolong the transitional phase, and the insistence of the Government of National Unity not to hand over except to an elected authority, provide an appropriate opportunity to continue pressing for termination of the HoR and the HCS, and reject the proposal to form a third government under the pretext of conducting elections, because it would only be another attempt to prolong the same failed entities and gloomy faces of the political scene.
Background
In view of the impasse of the political track, following the aborted elections, and hardening of positions of the parties to the conflict, lack of initiatives on the part of UNSMIL and Advisor Stephanie Williams, and inability of the Presidential Council to play its role in taking decisive decisions to rescue the political track, it seems that the current available option to overcome the current situation, and to progress a step forward to elections track, is the formation of a third government, in which all rival parties participate in the consultation of its formation.
This does not mean, however, that they be part of the government, since in this case, it will necessarily turn into a quota government, which will not pave the way to conducting elections.
The third government must be a mini-government to the minimum extent possible, and be formed from personalities not affiliated with the parties to the conflict, or at least its president with two deputies representing all the regions.
Perhaps this step, will break the current stalemate, and end the current conflict between the Government of National Unity and the parallel government, but this obviously will not be enough.
The constitutional base and election laws remain the most important steps for the elections, and according to Williams’ statements after the failure of the last Geneva round between the presidents of the House of Representatives and the High Council of State, the remaining contentious issues could be overcome and an acceptable settlement can be reached.
The resumption of negotiations on the constitutional base, and the election laws, needs an additional effort from Advisor Williams, with strong pressure from the international parties supporting the elections, because this path is outside the calculations of Aguila Saleh, Speaker of the House of Representatives.
This was apparent from his last correspondence with Williams, calling on her to implement Bouznika’s outcomes regarding the sovereign positions.
Through this approach, Aqila appears like a bankrupt merchant who returns to his old books, looking for forgotten debts, which he can reclaim in order to restore some of his lost authority, after his failure to overthrow the Dabaiba government, and empower the Bashagha government, as well as the strengthening by Dhabaiba and Haftar of their authority following the recent understandings, Which resulted in changing the board of directors of the National Oil Corporation, and the arrival of Haftar’s forces Chief of Staff, Al-Nadouri, to Tripoli.
The rapprochement between Dabaiba and Haftar was expected to continue by making a limited ministerial reshuffle, in which Haftar would obtain some ministries, in exchange for abandoning the Bashagha government altogether, and allowing Dabaiba and his government to move in his areas of influence and control.
However, the rejection and reserved reactions from the political and military parties supporting the Dabaiba government, prompted the latter to come out in televised remarks, denying the conclusion of any deal in his bid to continue in power and end the rival government.
The appearance of Dabaiba himself to explain his decision about assigning a figure close to Haftar to head the NOC, and to deny any deals or concessions to Haftar, with a sharp attack on his opponents, confirms his retreat and his inability to gamble with his allies, who revealed their willingness to abandon him, if the circulating news about granting Haftar what he wants in return for the continuation of his government, proved to be true.
Return of HoR designated prime minister to Misurata caused some disturbances between his supporters and those of Dabaiba. It almost edged into an armed confrontation.
The conflict, however, was contained by the intervention of the city’s notables, with a statement clarifying the lines that no party could cross, to spare the city the risk of sliding into an armed conflict. This however, does not mean the end of rivalry, as both sides to the conflict continue to work to achieve their goals.
Therefore, it seems that there is no way out, except through a new forum under the auspices of the United Nations, and the agreement of the political parties, on a third government that will oversee holding of elections.
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Abdullah Alkabir, a Libyan political writer and commentator.
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