Mustapha Dalaa, Mahmut Arrived
UN Special Envoy to Libya Abdoulaye Bathiliy called on the UNSC to create alternative mechanisms for the elections to take place if the Libyan State Supreme Council and the TM cannot reach an agreement.
The call of the United Nations (UN) Special Representative for Libya, Abdoulaye Bathiliy, to create alternative mechanisms in case the Libyan Supreme Council of State and the House of Representatives (TM) fail to reach an agreement regarding the holding of the elections, found support from the Western countries.
In line with Bathiliy’s calls, the USA, England, Germany and Italy announced that alternative mechanisms could be created if the Libyan State Supreme Council and TM do not come to an agreement.
A year has passed since the failure of the presidential and general elections in Libya, scheduled for December 24, 2021. Although all the political forces in the country are expressing that they want elections to be held in order to overcome the current crisis, no progress has been made in this regard yet.
One year has passed since the postponement of the elections in Libya is considered a new failure for both the Libyan people and the international community. As a matter of fact, there were many promises made for the realization of the elections, but no agreement was reached for the implementation in Libya.
The attitude of the USA, England, Germany and Italy towards Libya is of moral support to Bathiliy, who has called on the UN Security Council (UNSC) to resort to alternative mechanisms that can solve the problems caused by the temporary political process in Libya.
However, it is stated that the support of the said countries to Bathiliy is conditional on the Libyan State Supreme Council and TM not reaching a quick agreement.
In his speech in front of the UNSC Headquarters on 16 December, Bathiliy criticized Libyan State Supreme Council President Khalid al-Mishri and TM President Akile Salih, and attributed the crisis in the country to the disagreement between Mishri and Saleh.
The USA, in a statement released on the occasion of the 71st anniversary of Libya’s independence, used expressions in support of Bathiliy’s call at the UNSC.
In the statement, it was stated that if the Supreme Council of State and TM do not reach a quick agreement on the roadmap for transparent elections in Libya, an alternative mechanism that will form a constitutional basis for the elections should be resorted to.
British Foreign Ministry Spokesperson also repeated Bathiliy’s words at the UNSC, emphasizing that alternative mechanisms could be created against the problems caused by the outdated temporary political arrangements in Libya.
When similar statements came from Germany and Italy, this situation brought with it the possibility that all these countries agreed with Bathiliy to put pressure on Mishri and Saleh for an agreement to establish a constitutional basis that will enable the elections to take place in Libya.
A year has passed since the failure of the presidential and general elections in Libya, scheduled for December 24, 2021. Although all the political forces in the country are expressing that they want elections to be held in order to overcome the current crisis, no progress has been made in this regard yet.
The only success in this process was “keeping the peace”
One year has passed since the postponement of the elections in Libya is considered a new failure for both the Libyan people and the international community. As a matter of fact, there were many promises made for the realization of the elections, but no agreement was reached for the implementation in Libya.
The only success in this process, where the political forces’ disagreement about the elections in Libya, a North African country, continued, was to preserve the fragile peace process with the ongoing ceasefire.
In this process, the leader of the armed forces in eastern Libya, Khalifa Haftar, hinted at returning to the war, saying that he “given one last opportunity to create a road map that will enable the elections to take place.” In his statements, Haftar likened the current political organs in the country to a “deathbed person”.
On the other hand, Prime Minister of the Libyan Government of National Accord, Abdulhamid Dibeybe, denied the accusations against his government of obstructing the elections and emphasized the inevitability of holding the elections immediately.
At the last moment, TM gave up its attempt to take a step towards ending its dialogue with the State Supreme Council by enacting a law to establish the Constitutional Court in the eastern city of Benghazi.
Although the national dialogue forum had success in unifying the legislative and executive authorities in Libya, it failed to reach consensus on establishing a constitutional basis. The main reason for the failure here was related to the name that would be a candidate for the presidential election.
In a joint written statement made by Salih and Misri, it was stated that TM suspended the said initiative and the dialogue process continues.
However, no positive development is expected in the negotiations between TM and the State Supreme Council. As a matter of fact, the bilateral dialogues have focused on forming a third government instead of the Dibeybe and Fethi Başağa governments and sharing the dominant positions of the state, albeit gradually.
Will the international community’s pressures on Mishri and Salih yield results?
The pressure exerted by the international community on Mishri and Saleh in order to reach an agreement on a constitutional ground and roadmap for the elections in Libya is not expected to yield any results, because neither of them has the decision-making mechanism in the country.
Without compromising his US citizenship and military title, Haftar uses his war card as a pressure tool to prevent his candidacy in the presidential elections.
Dibeybe also insists that the elections be held with the GNA government, even with his candidacy in the presidential elections, and he wants Misri and Salih not to resort to an attempt to form a third government.
The options that the UN Special Envoy for Libya Bathiliy may apply to the Supreme Council of the State and the alternative mechanism to the TM do not seem likely to yield results, but it is not possible to wait forever for the elections that did not take place in the country.
Therefore, the interests of the active forces in Libya make it difficult to reach the quick agreement expected by the Libyan people and the international community.
Bathiliy may have to resort to alternative mechanism option
It is not expected that the State Supreme Council and the TM will reach a conclusion after this, as in many processes that they have initiated for an agreement that will form the constitutional basis of the elections.
The main reason for this is the pressure exerted by Haftar on TM President Salih to refuse to accept conditions such as dual citizenship and military title for presidential election candidates.
It is envisaged that the UN Special Envoy to Libya Bathiliy will have to resort to the option of creating an alternative mechanism to the Libyan Supreme Council of State and TM with the support of Western countries for the constitutional rules that will form the basis for electoral laws.
Although there is no detail yet on the alternative mechanism that Bathiliy might create, several ways can be applied, including the option that Bathiliy’s predecessor, Stephanie Williams from the USA, tried.
Williams had created a “national dialogue forum” made up of 73 members, 26 of whom were from the State Supreme Council and the TM.
Although the national dialogue forum had success in unifying the legislative and executive authorities in Libya, it failed to reach consensus on establishing a constitutional basis. The main reason for the failure here was related to the name that would be a candidate for the presidential election.
Possible scenarios
There is a possibility that Bathiliy may apply to a new formation that will not include the legislative authorities, the State Supreme Council and the members of the TM, but it is clear that the parliament, which will not give up its powers easily, will not allow it.
The Libyan Presidential Council’s step to dissolve both the Supreme State Council and the TM and retain legislative and executive powers is among the options.
If this scenario is applied, the President of the Presidential Council, Mohammed al-Menfi, will have difficulty in making the elections because he has no power on the field.
As a matter of fact, the eastern and southern parts of the country are under the control of forces loyal to Haftar, while most regions in the western part are under the control of forces loyal to Prime Minister Dibeybe. If both are excluded from the game, the possibility of not allowing the elections to take place is also on the agenda.
As a result, the options that the UN Special Envoy for Libya Bathiliy may apply to the Supreme Council of the State and the alternative mechanism to the TM do not seem likely to yield results, but it is not possible to wait forever for the elections that did not take place in the country.
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