Bilal Abdullah
Reactions to the Initiative
Reactions to the initiative by parties to the Libyan conflict have varied. Positions rejecting it were based on various reasons and motives. The following are key positions on this initiative:
The Dbeibeh Government:
ThePrimeMinister of the Government of National Unity, Abdul Hamid al-Dbeibeh, agreed on November 28, 2023, to participate in the scheduled meeting. However, details of his position and reservations reflect a reserved and cautious attitude toward the initiative. Dbeibeh stressed that the meeting should focus on “reaching a legal and constitutional foundation for the launch and success of the electoral process.” He assumes that a Security Council resolution supports no legal and constitutional foundation.
This position contradicts the emphasis in Bathily’s initiative that the negotiations will be conducted based on recognizing the two laws passed by the HoR without allowing the negotiating parties the right to establish any other basis of legitimacy or the ability to circumvent these laws. The initiative only requires “good intent” from the negotiators to solve outstanding issues. Dbeibeh also reiterated his rejection of discussing forming a new government before the elections. Instead, he proposed establishing a higher commission to oversee elections in which security and military agencies from all over Libya take part, something that keeps his government intact while allowing other powers to shoulder some of its tasks.
The House of Representatives (HoR):
During his inauguration of the HoR’s session on November 28, 2023, Speaker Aguila Saleh opposed the Dbeibeh government’s participation based on the initiative. Saleh said the term of this government has ended, calling for Osama Hammad’s government, whose formation was authorized by the HoR, to take part in the meeting instead. He stressed that the election laws passed by the HoR should not be subject to debate and that the only article on the meeting’s agenda should be forming a new mini-cabinet with a task to oversee elections. He added that the new government should be recommended by the two houses (the HoR and High Council of State), with the former House of Representatives granting it a vote of confidence.
Two points can be made about Saleh’s stand on the initiative. First is the assertion that electoral laws are final and applicable. This means that the HoR has reservations about the main item, which is the objective behind presenting this initiative. Second, Saleh pointed out that he agreed with the head of the High Council of State to meet soon to discuss forming a government, which he considers the main item the meeting should address. This means that he is committed to the bilateral track of negotiations to settle the government formation issue before dealing with the meeting as a second-order event following the bilateral track.
Hammad’s Government: It can be said that the Stability Government’s position, appointed by the HoR and led by Osama Hammad, is the initiative’s most decisive rejection. This government dismisses the initiative because it offers no representation in the meeting and raises two other issues worth noting.
Firstly, it objected to the Dbeibeh government and the PC’s participation in the meeting. Secondly, its criticism extended to “the UN envoy’s credibility, questioning his impartiality,” calling on the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, to appoint a new UN envoy based on “the criteria of impartiality, competence, and integrity.”
The High State Council:
It has not explicitly opposed the initiative. However, statements released by its president, Mohamed Tekala, during his visit to Moscow tended to agree with the Dbeibeh government’s position on the legislative framework for elections. He emphasized the need to agree on electoral laws before moving forward. Although Tekala’s position synced with the initiative, his previous statements clarified that he refused to acknowledge the constitutionality of HoR enacted laws, citing what he considered a violation of the 13th constitutional amendment.
The State Council and the HoR have a shared interest in returning to bilateral talks while sidelining other tracks, including what the initiative proposes. Despite the State Council’s alignment with the Dbeibeh government on electoral laws, Tekala will likely respond to Aguila Saleh’s efforts to organize bilateral meetings. These discussions may address additional issues such as government formation or raising the sovereign posts issue, particularly considering the recent signs of a strained relationship between Sadiq al-Kabir, the Central Bank governor, and Dbeibeh.
The Presidential Council
During a meeting with Bathily on December 4, the Presidential Council (PC) President, Mohamed Menfi, emphasized the Council’s commitment to a strategy of positive neutrality to ensure the success of the political dialogue. Menfi’s recent meetings with international officials show a serious focus on advancing the initiative and garnering enough support for its success.
The Libyan National Army’s General Command
While the army command in Benghazi has not issued official statements about the initiative, reports from Masar TV, close to the eastern Libyan camp and citing unidentified sources within the General Command, indicate that Haftar’s forces oppose the initiative, mainly due to the exclusion of the Hammad government from participation.
Mayors of Municipalities
Mayors of 56 Libyan municipalities, primarily in the east and south, released a statement rejecting Bathily’s initiative. Signatories accused the UN envoy of “siding with a particular party to assist it in seizing power.” Later, mayors from 20 municipalities in the west followed suit and rejected the initiative.
While these mayors do not formally represent a party in the five-party meeting, their positions will likely influence the consultative process, which Bathily plans to utilize to engage various segments of society, including notables, political parties, and civil society.
Western Ambassadors
On November 23, ambassadors from five Western countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Germany – issued a joint statement supporting Bathily’s call for institutional players to convene in a joint meeting. They declared their commitment to providing the necessary support for its success. While the statement emphasized support for bringing institutional players together, it did not refer to the consultative process involving social components and other political stakeholders.
Bathily does not seem optimistic about the initiative’s success. The French-language magazine Jeune Afrique published an interview with the UN envoy just days after its introduction. In the interview, he expressed his frustration with the political class in Libya, accusing its leaders of “not wanting a solution to their country’s crisis and being unwilling to proceed with postponed presidential and parliamentary elections.”
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