The prevailing impression, now, is that the final say when it comes to war or peace is in the hands of the Russians and the Turks.
Statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov sought to convey the impression that that his country’s efforts in coordination with Turkey have made possible the precarious calm tensions prevailing in Libya and that Moscow will not allow the North African country to plunge into war again.
A cautious calm remains uninterrupted in Libya after clashes in the capital, Tripoli, in recent days. The violence has raised new concerns that the conflict could expand, leading eventually to the involvement of the Libyan National Army (LNA) forces led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.
These concerns increased with the massive military parade organised by the LNA in Benghazi to mark the anniversary of the launch of Operation Karama (Dignity), and the statements made by Haftar during the parade, in which he threatened to attack Tripoli again.
Lavrov’s statements appeared to be a reassurance to Libyans, whose fears were fuelled by Haftar’s hint at a repeat of the Tripoli war, the repercussions of which Libyans have yet to overcome. Their fears were further exacerbated by the presence of Russian Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov in Benghazi to mark the anniversary of Operation Dignity, the 2014 military campaign that Haftar launched to seize control of the city from Islamists.
The prevailing impression, now, is that the final say when it comes to war or peace is in the hands of the Russians and the Turks, a fact confirmed by Lavrov’s statements on Tuesday during his meeting with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan.
Haftar’s forces had earlier advanced toward Sirte, coinciding with the outbreak of clashes in the capital, Tripoli. These clashes aimed to dismantle the Rada Special Deterrence Forces and eliminate their commander Abdul Raouf Kara, in a repeat of what happened with the Stability Support Apparatus, when its commander, Abdul Ghani al-Kikli, known as Ghneiwa, was killed.
Leaks indicate that Haftar and his sons, especially Saddam, have succeeded in recent years in establishing ties with militias in Tripoli. Activists on social media circulated a video of Vice President of the Presidential Council, Musa al-Koni, speaking about Saddam’s strong influence in Tripoli, which he said has become equal to or greater than that of Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah.
Sources had reported in recent days that a Turkish intervention halted the attack that Dbeibah was seeking to carry out to dismantle the Rada Deterrence Forces. They believed that had it not been for the Turkish intervention, Dbeibah’s forces would have achieved their goal, despite the mobilisation of forces from various regions in western Libya to support Rada.
In 2019, Haftar launched an attack on the capital, Tripoli, that lasted for nearly three years. This fighting ended with him losing all his positions south of the capital and withdrawing his forces to the east, following a Turkish intervention and the use of Turkish drones, which tipped the balance of power in favour of the Tripoli forces, despite the Russian Wagner Group’s support for Haftar’s forces.
During his meeting with Fidan on Tuesday, Lavrov revealed that Russia and Turkey agreed to use their influence on the Libyan parties to prevent the resumption of hostilities in the country. “We agreed to use our influence on the Libyan parties to prevent a new escalation that threatens to resume hostilities,” Lavrov said, according to Russia’s Sputnik news agency.
Haftar said on Monday that his forces will play a decisive role in shaping the country’s future, stating they will have “the final word at the critical moment.” He described the restoration of the Libyan state and the pursuit of security and stability as his primary goals. “We are aligned with the will of the Libyan people and at their service,” he said.
Haftar also claimed that his forces had “fought and defeated terrorism,” adding that the international community should support his army without “discrimination or delay,” as it had, in his view, done the fighting on its behalf. Haftar’s statements coincided with protests demanding the departure of Dbeibah, a move the UN mission to Libya (UNSMIL) does not currently support.
From May 12 to 15, Tripoli had been rocked by violent clashes between armed groups and pro-government forces after the Government of National Unity decided to disband “all militias” controlling the city. Fierce fighting erupted, resulting in the deaths of at least eight people, according to the United Nations, until a truce was reached.
Although relative calm has since returned to the city, the situation remains highly volatile, with demonstrations rejecting Dbeibah’s continuation in office and rival demonstrations in his support.
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