Mauro Indelicato
In the intricate tangle of the Middle East, every event risks affecting the balance of neighboring countries and beyond . The advance of Islamist factions and their spread throughout the central-northern area of Syria could have important repercussions in all other delicate scenarios in the region. Starting with Libya , a country that entered a state of latent war in the same year as Syria, that is, in 2011, characterized by the heavy wind of the Arab Spring.
Haftar fears repeat of Syrian scenario
The advance of anti-government militias is not only a hard blow for Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, whose permanence in power appears increasingly in the balance. On the contrary, it also represents a very serious problem for Russian interests in the region . After all, Russia’s entry into the Syrian quagmire, which occurred in 2015, was mainly due to the defense of the naval base of Tartus , which has long been a key outpost in the Mediterranean for Moscow.
“In Benghazi,” a diplomatic source told InsideOver, “they didn’t sit back and watch: if a Russian base in Syria can fall, a Russian base in Libya can suffer the same fate .” And in fact, Cyrenaica has been an important hub for the Kremlin for at least eight years. Here, in the territory dominated by General Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army ( LNA ), many now fear a domino effect: “The general’s real fear,” the source continued, “is that Moscow’s allies in the region will be perceived as weak or expendable .” And in the Middle East, being perceived as weak means being perceived as easily attackable targets.
The moves of the strongman of Cyrenaica
For Assad, however, the last word has not been said and the retreats from Aleppo and Hama could be a prelude to a possible counterattack. At the same time, therefore, even for the Russian bases in Syria the fate is far from being sealed: “Haftar, however – the source wanted to reiterate – can see very far and knows that, if the message were to get through that he has the Russians as his only protectors, his dominion in Cyrenaica would be called into question”.
This explains the rapprochement, already highlighted in recent days on InsideOver , between very close members of Haftar’s entourage and some Turkish officials. In particular, between October and November photos appeared that portray, inside the Benghazi headquarters of the LNA, officials and envoys from Ankara in conversation with collaborators of Haftar. While one of the general’s sons, Saddam Haftar, was among the guests of the Saha Expo 2024 , the event dedicated to Defense that takes place annually in Istanbul.
Signals that suggest that, in Benghazi, a deep destabilization of the local framework has been feared for some time. With Haftar who, regardless of the outcome of the Syrian conflict and whether Assad holds firm or not, has a desperate need to diversify his allies, especially on the military front.
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