NIkoletta Kritikou
One way for the EU to escape from Khalifa Haftar’s and Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh’s migratory stranglehold, would be to freeze all financial transactions with Libya until the Libyan state is represented by a unified government, stresses Jason Pack, author of “Libya and the Global Enduring Disorder,” in an interview with Kathimerini.
The host of the Disorder Podcast points out that parts of the Libyan state use migration as blackmail – while Ankara plays the Tripoli card to challenge the sovereign rights of Greece and Cyprus.
Barack Obama described the handling of the post-Gaddafi era in Libya as “the biggest mistake of his presidency,” placing overall blame on the Europeans for their inaction in reconstruction. What is the reason behind the international community’s complacency?
The West failed to coordinate effectively to safeguard its strategic interests in Libya. A telling sign: After the collapse of the Libyan state, nine out of the 10 key actors involved have been pursuing different goals. Even within the EU, there have been profound divisions. Greece and Italy ended up on opposing sides.
Italy and France militarily supported rival factions during the 2014 and 2019-2020 post-Gaddafi Libyan civil wars – something unprecedented since 1945: NATO countries training opposing forces in the same civil conflict. The West chose not to intervene as it did in Iraq, but rather it accepted to support a no-fly zone and then to adopt a hands-off posture in the reconstruction phase.
NATO didn’t intervene, but there was a popular uprising demanding an international no-fly zone. Most strategic failures in Libya’s power transition were made by Libyans themselves – and were worsened by an international landscape of weak coordination. As Colin Powell’s Pottery Barn rule suggests: You break it, you own it. The West didn’t break it, but has also failed to own it.
Is the illegal Turkey-Libya memorandum a Trojan horse for Turkey’s geopolitical policy?
Turkey is using Libya to directly challenge Greece’s and Cyprus’ sovereign rights in the southeastern Aegean and southeastern Mediterranean. Turkey saved western Libya’s government from Haftar’s conquest of Tripoli in late 2019 and has since gained de facto influence, securing financial influence and oil trading agreements.
After winning the battle for Tripoli, Turkey became the dominant military power in western Libya. It can operate drones and block Haftar or other pro-Russian forces from capturing Tripoli. Turkey is using Libya to directly challenge Greece’s and Cyprus’ sovereign rights in the southeastern Aegean and southeastern Mediterranean. It completely disregards the existence of Crete, violating the UNCLOS convention. It links Turkish territorial waters to Libya as if Crete, and the Greek and Cypriot EEZs, do not exist.
Haftar opens the migration floodgates to pressure Europe. Is he acting alone or under Ankara and Moscow’s guidance?
Haftar is betting on the EU’s fear, following Gaddafi’s strategy. He understands that [Italian PM Georgia] Meloni is a politician who has no interest whatsoever in rebuilding Libya – only in telling her neo-populist voters that she reduced migrant numbers. This emboldens Haftar. We are experiencing what I call “enduring disorder” – a period when, unlike past eras, major powers don’t promote new orders but invest in destabilizing the current one. One way of promoting that disorder is mass migration.
Russia has long sought to promote mass migration from sub-Saharan Africa and the Sahel into Europe using many means, including the Wagner Group. They see that destabilizing Europe this way is effective. Similarly, Turkey learned during the Syrian crisis that pushing Syrian migrants toward Europe gives it strong bargaining power.
Recently, a diplomatic incident occurred in Benghazi where Haftar declared a European delegation personae non gratae. Can the international community negotiate with such a fractured power structure?
Even the idea of immediate elections is a major mistake. You cannot solve Libya’s crisis without addressing its root cause, the dysfunctional economic structures. What Europe should have done long ago is focus on reforming Libya’s economy.
Suspend financial dealings with Libya until the vast subsidies are eliminated and broken economic structures are reformed. As long as Libyans pay 1 euro cent per liter of gasoline, smuggling networks will thrive – transporting fuel to Tunisia, Malta or Algeria – and will continue profiting from corruption and disfunction.
Given the current conditions, do you foresee national reconciliation or elections?
In my view, no. All discussions about elections since the government split in 2014 – including the ones announced in 2021 – have been empty rhetoric. Libya is simultaneously two countries and no country at all. It is terra nullius.
There are semi-sovereign institutions like the central bank, the National Oil Corporation, and the state electricity provider, all stronger than the central government. This is not a Sudan-type civil war with two armies clashing. In Libya, there are multiple centers of power, various militias, and institutions like the central bank that pay salaries in both eastern and western Libya. The situation is far more complex than a typical civil war with clear geographic boundaries.
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