Mustapha Dalaa
The oil ports in Libya, which had been closed for about 3 months, were reopened on 12 July with the dismissal of Mustafa Sanallah, the Chairman of the Libyan National Petroleum Corporation (NOC), and the appointment of Ferhat bin Kıdara, who is close to the eastern camp.
The Prime Minister of the Libyan National Unity Government, Abdulhamid Dibeybe, dismissed Mustafa Sanallah, the Chairman of the Libyan National Petroleum Corporation (NOC) on 12 July, and appointed Ferhat bin Kıdara to replace him, leading to allegations that “a new alliance has been established between the east and the west of the country”. .
Despite the fact that Dibeyba had confronted the people yesterday and denied these allegations, which he described as “lie, slander and fabricated news”, it is still believed by most of the people that an alliance was entered into with Khalifa Haftar, the leader of the armed forces in the east of the country, under the auspices of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). remains an accepted idea.
One of the important indicators of this alliance was that the forces loyal to Haftar stopped the work of closing oil ports and fields as soon as Bin Kıdara was appointed, despite demanding that Dibeybe hand over the administration to Fethi Başağa, who was elected Prime Minister by the House of Representatives in the east of the country.
For this reason, the appointment of Bin Kıdara, close to the eastern front, as the head of the Petroleum Corporation, is seen as the result of an agreement between Dibeybe and Haftar.
Although none of the parties mentioned the existence of such an agreement, Libyan activists claim that Haftar’s son Saddam Haftar and the representatives of Dibeybe have reached an agreement to remove Sanallah and open the oil ports that have been closed for about 3 months.
If an alliance between Haftar and Dibeybe is really reached under the auspices of the UAE in order to quell the anger of the people, there will be no choice but to surrender to the current situation and overthrow the government by resigning, or to change this situation by entering Tripoli by using armed force.
According to Dibeybe, an ordinary decision turned into an unfavorable campaign.
Dibeybe, on the other hand, in his speech yesterday “to tell the truth to the public against the campaign against him”, stated that he “does not expect the decision to change the board of directors of a government institution to collapse the projects of those who aspire to power and that an ordinary event within the government will mobilize the international parties who rely on a project”. .
Dibeybe said that the news in the press that he “stepped back or shared power with others” was a figment of imagination. We’ve all seen the crisis. The new members are people who are accepted by everyone. We had to take this step.” said.
According to Haftar, Başağa could not enter Tripoli despite making many promises. Bashaga’s peaceful course and refusal to use force to overthrow the Dibayba government does not serve Haftar’s goal of weakening the forces of the western region and disbanding the brigades in Misrata, which failed his attempt to enter Tripoli in 2019-2020.
Possible gains on the Haftar wing with the alliance
The Italian news agency Agenzia Nova, on the other hand, points out that the only technically possible reconciliation could be between Dibeybe and Haftar, who is constantly on a quest to finance the war machine.
Funding is not the only thing Haftar is looking for. At the beginning of July, in many cities of the country, political figures were demanded to step down during the protests against electricity cuts and bread prices.
Haftar knows that he cannot stop oil exports for a long time. Because this situation may cause public anger and pressure from the international arena. For this reason, it is thought that he made an agreement with the Dibeybe government to open the oil ports in return for one of his supporters to be appointed as the head of the oil institution.
Except for the appointment of Bin Kıdara, who was the Central Bank Governor during the Muammar Gaddafi period and is currently on the Haftar front, the details of this agreement were not made public. But it is argued that in 2020, it will not be much different from the agreements between Saddam Haftar and the then Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Muaytik.
Haftar wants to secure a share of oil revenues, but he cannot resist pressure from both the public and the US-led international community, who want Libyan oil to flow to Europe to mitigate the impact of the rise in energy prices.
Dibeybe, on the other hand, knows that his government could be overthrown if the electricity crisis is not resolved quickly, or at least reduced downtime.
Despite the fact that Dibeyba had confronted the people yesterday and denied these allegations, which he described as “lie, slander and fabricated news”, it is still believed by most of the people that an alliance was entered into with Khalifa Haftar, the leader of the armed forces in the east of the country, under the auspices of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). remains an accepted idea.
Third victim to Virgo?
Dibeybe dismissed Sanallah in July, following the decision to dissolve the Libyan General Electric Company (GECOL) Board in June. It is claimed that Başağa may be the third victim to quell the anger of the people who demanded the withdrawal of all political figures.
Allegations of alliance between Haftar and Dibeybe – although denied by Dibeybe – show that Başağa and his government will not play an important role in the future. This implies tacit recognition of the National Unity Government that implemented the NOC resolution despite the objections of Sanallah, the House of Representatives, the Libyan Supreme State Council and even the US Ambassador.
According to Haftar, Başağa could not enter Tripoli despite making many promises. Bashaga’s peaceful course and refusal to use force to overthrow the Dibayba government does not serve Haftar’s goal of weakening the forces of the western region and disbanding the brigades in Misrata, which failed his attempt to enter Tripoli in 2019-2020.
In addition, the public’s demand for all political figures to leave means that Başağa is not wanted either. Moreover, Başağa’s passing to Sirte, unable to hold on to the capital, and his inability to obtain financing from the Central Bank to implement his program, has also been recorded as a negative note.
If an alliance between Haftar and Dibeybe is really reached under the auspices of the UAE in order to quell the anger of the people, there will be no choice but to surrender to the current situation and overthrow the government by resigning, or to change this situation by entering Tripoli by using armed force.
Basha knows that he cannot dominate Libya without entering Tripoli. Entering the capital means shedding a lot of blood. That’s why Başağa wants to persuade the commanders of the military forces in Tripoli to end their loyalty to the government.
Although none of the parties mentioned the existence of such an agreement, Libyan activists claim that Haftar’s son Saddam Haftar and the representatives of Dibeybe have reached an agreement to remove Sanallah and open the oil ports that have been closed for about 3 months.
In the land of multiple actors, alliances can change at any time.
The alliance, which is said to exist between Haftar and Dibeybe, has not left the oil circle so far. In other words, Haftar has not yet indicated that he intends to recognize the National Unity Government and pull the carpet under the Bashagh government.
Moreover, Dibeybe and Haftar are not alone in determining the future of the country. There are also actors such as the House of Representatives and the State Supreme Council in the game, and they cannot agree on a government in which neither Dibeybe nor Başağa will be the prime minister.
The possibility that the Presidential Council may declare a state of emergency (OHAL), dissolve the two conflicting governments and the Assembly, and reshape the political scene should not be overlooked.
The re-flow of Libyan oil to international markets will not please Russia. In this case, the Russian company Wagner can mobilize its military forces in the country to make certain gains by putting pressure on the Libyan parties.
At this stage, everyone is waiting for the other side’s move in the country where there are many military, political and international actors, and they also consider the possibility that the alliances formed may change at any moment and people who are not accountable will enter the game.
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