Abdullah Alkabir
Each party continues to perpetuate the current situation, immersed in its conflicts, with hopes of winning and overthrowing opponents. Libyan entities and personalities may not fully grasp the danger of the next stage for the future of the Libyan entity.
Alternatively, they might recognize that major powers are paving the way for Libya to become a new arena of conflict—a hot spot where they settle their scores. These powers negotiate and conclude deals, shaping what the next world order will be.
Unfortunately, Libyan parties seem incapable of acting effectively to spare the country from its dire scenarios.
The ruling elite in the east, west, and south of Libya appears oblivious to the conflict that is expanding between Russia on one side and America and its allies on the other. This conflict has been brewing since Russia began implementing global expansion strategies, seeking to regain the influence once held by the Soviet Union across continents.
Recently, this influence has even extended into space, where tens of thousands of satellites support America’s military operations. Russia plans to disable or neutralize these satellites using advanced weaponry.
While, we and indeed most countries are not directly concerned with this space conflict, even though its impact will affect all people on the planet. However, a few nations—such as China and India—have the military, technological, and economic capabilities to influence this situation.
What directly concerns us is the expansion of Russian military influence in eastern and southern Libya, along with its regional extensions into the African Sahel region. The US and Europe are mobilizing to confront this influence.
Since the rapprochement between Haftar’s camp and Russia, including the involvement of the Wagner Group in Libya to support Haftar, the American and Western reaction has been limited to expressing concern and annoyance through media interviews, statements, and reports.
Also, verbale exchanges between the two sides intensify at the UN Security Council debates, whenever the Libyan crisis is on the agenda. However, it appears that the stage of denunciation and anxiety has ended for America and its closest ally, Britain.
In June and December of last year, there were reports of an anonymous bombing targeting cargo planes carrying military equipment and advanced monitoring devices at the Al-Jufra base.
Additionally, Italian authorities recently intercepted a military shipment destined for Haftar from China, following an American tip to the Italian government about this shipment of military equipment and drones.
But is this enough to curb Russian expansion and counter its influence in Libya? In other words, will America be content with the sporadic bombings of perceived threats and monitoring weapons shipments across the sea, and intervening through its allies to confiscate them?
If this level of reaction is to achieve the desired goal, then the answer is yes. America and Russia both avoid direct confrontation, but Russia can overcome the effects of occasional bombings.
There are alternative ways to evade inspections and weapon confiscations in the Mediterranean ports by America’s allies.
Looking ahead, it’s most likely that American action will escalate as they develop a new strategy for confrontation, during a meeting of some NATO countries in Washington in the coming days.
Will the local elites move to closely follow up and monitor these developments? The conflict is no longer in Syria, Ukraine, or the China Sea, but rather at home, and if we do not have any role in it, to mitigate its danger to our present and future, and even move towards neutralizing Libya from this conflict, then the day will not be far off when the parties to the conflict will no longer find authority, money or even a homeland.
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Abdullah Alkabir – Political writer and commentator
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