Senussi Bsaikri
Senior officers from the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) have arrived in Libya and met with political, military and security leaders in the West and East of the country. This is not the first visit by AFRICOM officers, but perhaps the sixth in the past three years, which reflects a special US interest in Libya. The Americans attributed it to terrorist threats, infiltrated borders and the need to form a joint military or security force between the divided West and East controlling factions. However, there is a new threat posed by Russia’s progress in strengthening its presence in Libya and the Sahel countries.
This was clear in AFRICOM’s statements and reports and was reflected in the escalation in the American rhetoric towards the Russian presence in the North African country, considering it to be undermining its security and stability, as well as the security and stability of the entire region.
Press reports quoted AFRICOM commander General Michael Langley as saying that they are searching for new allies in the region after the recent departure of US forces from Niger, and that Libya is included in the search. While the authenticity of the statement is not certain, it may not be unlikely if the Libyan crisis lasts for a long time and the Russian presence there is strengthened. What does seem clear in terms of US policy at the moment is the reliance on political and diplomatic options and local forces as the means to contain Russian infiltration in Libya.
It is known that AFRICOM reduced its focus on the 5+5 security committee, which did not succeed in achieving any tangible progress on the security level. Instead, it has focused its attention on the powerful leaders and forces on the ground. In the east, there has been communication between AFRICOM and the sons of General Khalifa Haftar, who hold senior military and security positions. Their influence is growing in the areas under Haftar’s control in the east and south of Libya. The AFRICOM delegation also visited the 444th Brigade in the West of the country, considering it to be a military force that is distinguished from other armed groups in the western area by its discipline. Several sources spoke about the possibility that these forces could be the nucleus of the joint force that the US seeks to form to secure the borders, remove mercenaries and confront terrorist threats.
It is true that AFRICOM’s tasks and objectives focus on besieging extremist groups, but its interest has grown over the past five years with the Russian presence in Libya and the Sahel countries. In fact, the Americans have become concerned about the nature of the Russian movement across Africa, which is what Langley mentioned in his latest briefing to the US Congress, noting that Russia is taking aggressive steps across the continent in an attempt to control areas extending from the southern borders of NATO in Libya to resource-rich Central Africa, and that its pace is picking up to achieve this.
The attempt to deal with influential and organised leaders and forces in West and East Libya may not achieve the Americans’ goal of containing the Russian presence and movement in the region, as Moscow is an ally of the eastern Libyan forces and provides much more support to Haftar than the US does. Removing the Russian forces from the eastern, southern and central parts of the country will weaken Haftar militarily. Washington does not plan on being a competent alternative to Moscow for Haftar, so how can the forces of the East be a party to restricting the Russian presence, let alone undermining it?
On the other hand, the US presidential election is approaching, and Donald Trump has a good chance of winning, according to many opinion polls. Trump’s position and choices are known to be contrary to Joe Biden’s policy of confronting the Russians, and it is expected that US foreign policy with regard to Ukraine and Libya will change if Trump wins. This means that the moves by AFRICOM in Libya will decline and its plans related to the military and security arrangements in the country will falter.
We should remember that it was Trump who gave the green light to Haftar to attack the Libyan capital in 2019.
While it is true that the effective US institutions, including the State Department, the Department of Defence and the National Security and Intelligence institutions, had reservations about the White House’s position and there was a change regarding the war in Libya at that time, this does not mean that these institutions are able to push Trump to continue the policy of confronting Russia’s plans in Africa, which has been the case over the past four years. AFRICOM’s moves in Libya are interesting, but the hopes for their success may depend on the result of the US presidential election on 5 November.
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