Salah El Houni
The Libyan landscape is complex, but at the core, it is a battle for sovereignty.
Since the fall of the Muammar Gadhafi regime in 2011, Libya has never achieved true stability. A vast country, rich in oil, and sparsely populated, Libya is politically and militarily divided, torn between two rival governments, two competing parliaments and militias with overlapping loyalties. With each round of negotiations, hopes arise only to quickly evaporate, prompting Libyans themselves to wonder: can the country ever return to normalcy?
Today, with another election approaching, the question resurfaces with added urgency. These long-awaited elections are not merely a procedural step, but a pivotal moment. Either Libya transforms into a state with institutions and full sovereignty, or it remains an arena for regional and international power struggles. In this context, seizing this last chance to save the Libyan state and prevent it from being eternally quagmired in crisis is more than necessary.
The Libyan landscape is complex, but at the core, it is a battle for sovereignty. Since 2011, Libyan decision-making has not been solely in the hands of Libyans. Foreign interventions have been numerous: Turkey has sent troops and advisors, Russia has established a presence through the Wagner Group, the United States and Europe have intervened through diplomatic pressure, while Libya’s neighbours, Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria, have been watching with concern what is happening on their borders. Each protagonist seeks to protect its interests, but the result is that Libya has become an arena for proxy wars, with ordinary Libyans paying the price.
Libyan citizens are the primary victims of all this jockeying for power and influence. While successive governments vie for legitimacy, Libyans are smothered by economic crises with power outages, collapse of healthcare services, the devaluation of the dinar and the lack of security. Oil, which was supposed to be a blessing, has become a curse, a bargaining chip between the warring factions. Ports are opened and closed according to the shifting balance of power, and revenues are distributed according to loyalties, not the needs of the people.
In light of this reality, the upcoming elections look like the last chance. But the elections are not only about ballot boxes; they are a test of the Libyans’ ability to overcome divisiveness. Elections alone are insufficient if they are not based on a political consensus that guarantees the acceptance of the results. The experience of December 2021 remains fresh in everybody’s mind. Elections were cancelled days before they were scheduled to take place due to disagreements over legal provisions and candidates. A repeat of this scenario this time around would be disastrous, as it would destroy what little remains of public trust in the political process.
The perspective from which we must view the elections is not merely procedural, but rather one of sovereignty. The real battle is about reclaiming national decision-making from the grip of foreign powers. Libya cannot build a stable state if its decisions remain hostage to other capitals. Elections, if conducted transparently and with everybody’s acceptance of the outcome, can be the beginning of restored sovereignty. However, they require both domestic and external guarantees. At home, there is need for national consensus among political and tribal forces, and externally, there is need for an international commitment to respecting the results and not using them as a bargaining chip.
The Arab region follows the Libyan situation with concern, because Libya’s stability is not just an internal matter. The collapse of the Libyan state opens the door to substantial threats stretching from Africa’s Sahel to the Mediterranean, including terrorism, irregular migration and arms and drug trafficking. Saving Libya is not only in Libya’s interest, but also in the interest of the Arab world and the region.
However, the question remains: do Libyans possess the political will to overcome their differences? Experience tells us that divisions are deep, but history teaches us also that nations are capable of rising up to the challenge when they realise that the alternative is perpetual chaos. Libya today stands at a crossroads: either it chooses the path of a state, or it remains hostage to militias and foreign interference.
This is not a call for naive optimism, but rather one for realism. No one expects the elections to solve all of Libya’s problems overnight. But they can be the beginning of a new path, if there is political will, and if the warring factions realise that continued divisions mean the irreversible demise of the state.
Libya has paid a heavy price over the past few years with thousands of deaths, hundreds of thousands of displaced persons, a collapsed economy and a fractured society.
This haemorrhaging cannot go on indefinitely. The upcoming elections may be the last chance to save the state. Missing this opportunity will mean be enduring chaos. Ultimately, the question is: do Libyans have the courage to put their country’s interests above their narrow interests? And does the international community have the wisdom to back the sovereignty option instead of fuelling division?
The answer will determine not only Libya’s future, but that of the entire region.
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