Tim Eaton & Lubna Yousef
A systems analysis of key transit hubs
Summary
— Migrant smuggling and trafficking in persons (TIP) have gone through three phases of development in Libya. The first, from 2011 to 2017, saw the rapid expansion of these practices. The second (2017–19) consisted of a clampdown by international and local actors to reduce coastline departures for Europe. The third and current phase, broadly beginning in 2020, has seen an uptick in departures and the de facto regulation of migrant smuggling and TIP by local actors.
— To understand the development of transnational networks of migrant smuggling and TIP via Libya since 2011, this paper utilizes a comparative systems analysis of three key transit hubs: Kufra, Sebha and Zawiya. The findings illustrate how two interconnected feedback loops have driven the expansion of migrant smuggling and TIP.
The first is a dispute over authority in each location, which spurs competition that leads to violent conflict. In turn, this conflict further aggravates the contention over authority. The second is grounded in economics: the structure of the economies in the three locations is reliant on informal and illicit cross-border trade and the movement of people. As state support has diminished and the informal and illicit sectors have expanded, reliance upon the latter to boost economic activity has grown.
— These two feedback loops have contributed to the entrenchment of armed groups and strengthened a pervasive conflict economy. These dynamics continue to frustrate hopes to establish unified and accountable governance in Libya.
— Migrant smuggling and TIP dynamics are often solely viewed through the lens of criminality. However, a closer look at Libya’s trajectory since 2011 illustrates how the development of the country’s illicit marketplace – of which migrant smuggling and trafficking are central – is intimately connected to historical legacies, social dynamics and enduring conflicts over authority at both the local and national level.
— These components are particularly visible in Kufra, where there has been longstanding conflict between the Arab Zway and the Tebu over the right to govern the territory. Likewise, Sebha, a key transit point for trans-Sahelian trade, continues to be contested by a number of community groups, with governance divided into neighbourhood districts. In contrast, while Zawiya is more homogenous, there are ongoing violent conflicts for power and authority inside and outside the city’s borders.
— Framed as rule of law interventions, European attempts to curb migrant smuggling and trafficking have addressed symptoms rather than causes. Migratory flows have fluctuated – but are significantly reduced from their 2016 highs – due to a series of transactional bargains that entrench conflict. However, this has made the issue harder to resolve, as Libyan actors seek to leverage flows of migrants, which are once again on the rise, for financial and political support.
— A more effective strategy to tackle this issue would be to develop a ‘whole-of-route’ approach that contains a wider suite of policy tools than simply enforcement, most notably sustainable local development initiatives and peacebuilding efforts. These have the potential to reduce demand and the perceived need for migrants to move and tackle the enabling environment in which criminal groups and conflict actors operate.
Introduction: Libya since 2011
A pervasive conflict economy has developed in Libya since the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi. Migrant smuggling and TIP became a key vector of this conflict economy, particularly in parts of the country reliant on cross-border trade. Libya has experienced three nationwide outbreaks of violent conflict and many episodes of localized fighting since 2011. A ceasefire has largely held across the country since 2020, but has been punctuated by sporadic armed confrontations between a range of rival groups.
While the initial violence was related to the popular uprising against the Gaddafi regime, the conflict soon became characterized by a quest for territory, power and resources. Apart from a limited period in 2021, the country has been administratively divided since 2014, with rival governments – based in the capital, Tripoli, and in the east of the country – claiming legitimacy. Amid Libya’s ongoing governance crisis and myriad conflicts, the country’s illicit marketplace has expanded dramatically. The distinction between the formal and the informal sectors, as well as the licit and illicit sectors, has become less clear, as much economic activity traverses these spaces.
Within this context, researchers and policymakers have focused significant attention on the development of migrant smuggling and trafficking in persons (TIP) in post-2011 Libya, primarily as a result of European interests and concerns over irregular migration. To date, two broad approaches have been adopted to analyse migrant smuggling and TIP on Libyan soil. The first focuses on the experiences of those traversing Libya as migrants and refugees, both voluntarily and involuntarily, highlighting the widespread violations of rights that they suffer.
The second focuses on detailed political-economy analysis of migrant smuggling and TIP, and is closely connected to assessments of migrant smuggling and TIP through the lens of organized criminality. Notably, emphasis on organized criminality has been a dominant feature of public discourse in European states. The analysis in this paper adopts a different focus, examining the role that conflict has played in the expansion of migrant smuggling and TIP from a broader, political-economy perspective, rather than through a detailed analysis of the modus operandi of migrant smuggling and TIP.
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Tim Eaton is a senior research fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House and Libya case study lead for the XCEPT research programme. His research focuses on the political economy of conflict in the MENA region and on that of the Libyan conflict, in particular.
Lubna Yousef is an independent researcher from Tripoli, Libya, based in Washington DC. A former activist on immigration issues herself, Lubna’s research focuses on the intersectionality of immigration, securitization, gender, violence and identity in contexts of conflict and cultural diversity.
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