Joseph Gagliano
Monitoring of an air bridge between Russia and Libya by «Itamilradar» in recent days sheds new light on Moscow’s ambitions in the Mediterranean and the evolution of its geopolitical strategy. According to reports, two Il-76TD aircraft belonging to the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations are alternating between Russia and the Al Khadim airbase, located in eastern Cyrenaica, east of Benghazi. This movement comes at a time of strategic change for Moscow, marked by the beginning of the withdrawal of its forces from the Hmeimim airbase in Syria and a renewed interest in Libya.
Cyrenaica:
New Hub of Russian Ambitions
The choice of Cyrenaica as the destination for this airlift is not accidental. Eastern Libya, under the control of General Khalifa Haftar’s forces, is a strategic region for Russia. In recent years, Moscow has sought to consolidate its influence in North Africa, a key area for controlling the Mediterranean and migratory flows to Europe. With Syria seemingly losing strategic relevance due to the unstable situation and the depletion of Russian resources in the conflict, Cyrenaica emerges as a promising alternative.
The possibility of Moscow establishing a permanent air and naval base in the region worries not only the European countries of the Mediterranean, but also NATO. A permanent Russian presence in Libya would pose a direct threat to maritime and air security in the central Mediterranean, as well as consolidating the Russian military projection capacity in North Africa and the Sahel.
The Role of the ‘New’ Wagner Group
According to «Itamilradar», Russia is deploying personnel and military equipment formerly associated with the Wagner Group, now reorganized under the so-called “Russian Afrika Korps”. Following the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, Moscow has clearly decided to restructure its paramilitary operations in Africa, while maintaining a significant presence in key areas such as Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic. In Libya, this new military asset could serve as a tool to consolidate Russian control over the region, ensuring strategic access to the Mediterranean and local energy fields.
NATO and the Turkish Dilemma
One of the most significant aspects of this operation is the fact that the flights between Russia and Libya are made possible by Turkey, the only NATO member that has not closed its airspace to Russian aircraft. This detail highlights the contradictions within the Atlantic alliance. Turkey, despite being formally an ally, has often adopted autonomous positions, if not openly contrary, to the NATO line, as demonstrated by its purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system.
Ankara also plays an ambiguous role in Libya, supporting the Tripoli government against Haftar’s forces, but at the same time maintaining open channels of communication with Moscow. This ambiguity complicates NATO’s ability to respond coherently to Russian moves in the region, fueling the risk of further internal divisions within the alliance.
An increasingly unstable
Mediterranean
The Russian airlift to Libya and the withdrawal from Hmeimim represent a paradigm shift in Moscow’s strategy . Russia is redeploying its resources to maximize its influence in areas where power vacuums and instability offer strategic opportunities. Libya, fragmented and politically unstable, is the ideal terrain for this strategy.
For Europe and NATO, Russia’s growing presence in the Mediterranean cannot be ignored. It is not just a military issue: Moscow’s control over Libya could affect migration flows, energy markets and regional political dynamics. In this context, the West’s failure to respond in a unified and coherent manner to the challenges posed by Russia and Turkey risks leaving the field open to both.
Conclusion:
The Future of a Geopolitical Game
Russian operations in Libya are yet another sign of an increasingly fragmented and multipolar world order. Russia, despite the economic and military difficulties caused by the war in Ukraine, demonstrates that it has the ability and the will to project its influence beyond its traditional borders. Libya, with its strategic position and energy resources, is destined to become a new epicenter of geopolitical tensions.
It remains to be seen whether NATO and Europe will be able to develop an effective strategy to counter this expansion. So far, the alliance’s internal divisions and lackluster rhetoric do not bode well. In the meantime, Moscow continues to move its pawns on the Mediterranean chessboard , demonstrating that, in international politics, opportunities often arise precisely in moments of crisis.
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