Improved security allowed Libya to hold its first vote in five years in May 2019, but turnout totaled only 38 percent across the nine municipalities where local elections occurred. Dozens of other municipalities held staggered elections from 2019 to 2021, delayed by violence and the pandemic. UN-led talks also established a roadmap for parliamentary and presidential elections to be held on December 24, 2021.
As part of this plan, the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) formed a provisional government, the Government of National Unity (GNU), in March 2021 to unify the GNA and HoR in preparation for national elections. The LPDF appointed Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah as prime minister and Mohamed al-Menfi, representing the eastern faction, president. The HoR almost unanimously approved the new government’s cabinet, and Seraj’s GNA and the eastern-based parliament ceded power to the new GNU.
On September 21, 2021, the HoR dashed hopes of elections when it passed a no-confidence motion against the GNU. Dbeibah called on Libyans to protest the HoR decision and reneged on his promise not to run in the election, declaring his candidacy along with Haftar and Qaddafi’s son, the other prominent candidates. However, the High National Electoral Commission indefinitely postponed the election just days before the planned vote as tensions arose over candidate eligibility and presidential and parliamentary powers.
The HoR called for the dissolution of the GNU, arguing its mandate expired on December 24, but Dbeibah refused to step down and said his government would remain in place until elections are held. In March 2022, the HoR approved a new cabinet with Fathi Bashagha as prime minister, effectively setting up a rival government based in Sirte.
The formation of rival governments reignited struggles for control over territory and resources. In March 2022, Haftar’s forces seized the GNU Benghazi headquarters and cut off access to oil and gas fields to deprive the GNU of revenue since it refused to give Bashagha access to state funds for his government’s budget. With no prospect of a political solution and the HoR facing protests, Bashagha entered Tripoli and tried to install his government. He failed, and fighting broke out in the capital between rival government forces in August following months of skirmishes.
Conditions improved in late 2022, but tensions remained high as the HoR solidified its institutions and political negotiations fractured. As UN-led talks failed to gain traction, the HoR embarked on its own path, passing a constitutional amendment in March 2023 that could lay the ground for elections and proposing to appoint a new national executive committee to replace the GNC and HoR.
The HoR has also engaged in talks with the High State Council (HSC), a committee established in 2015 to advise the GNA and HoR, forming a 6+6 joint council to create a roadmap for elections. In June 2023, that body recommended forming a new interim government in preparation for elections. While Haftar said he supports the proposal, Dbeibah, who has consolidated power after two years at the helm in Tripoli, rebuked any effort to form a new transitional governing body, insisting his government will continue to serve as the “interim” government until elections.
Dbeibah’s nephew and Haftar’s son have engaged in direct talks in Egypt on a separate plan to see Dbeibah stay in power but concede some ministries to Haftar. Those talks follow the May 2023 replacement of Bashagha with finance minister Osama Hamad as the eastern-based prime minister. The various peace talk tracks have each seen some progress, but low-scale violence persists, and any deal that does not have strong support from Dbeibah and Haftar is likely to cause further polarization.
Complicating peace prospects, Libya has also been drawn back into regional disputes over oil deposits and arms deals. In October 2022, the GNA signed an agreement with Turkey to begin oil and gas exploration off its coast, and in January 2023, it signed a deal with Italian company ENI to increase oil and gas output.
Greece and Egypt have disputed maritime borders with Libya and condemned Turkey’s moves, raising the possibility of confrontation in the Mediterranean. To the dismay of the GNU, a Libyan court suspended the deal with Turkey in January 2023. A member of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Companies (OPEC), Libya’s oil revenues constitute more than 80 percent of its total exports. As armed groups continue to fight over oil fields and restrict production, concerns have also increased over whether the country can support itself economically.
Leftover weaponry from prior conflicts has turned Libya into an “open supermarket” for arms, according to the former head of the UN Support Mission in Libya, which has fueled both internal political struggles and neighboring conflicts. Haftar has been accused of supplying weapons to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s civil war, putting Haftar on the opposing side of his ally Egypt in that conflict.
On September 10, 2023, Storm Daniel hit northeastern Libya, triggering catastrophic flooding. More than eleven thousand people were reported dead, with many more missing in the port city of Derna, where the flooding caused nearby dams to burst.
The country’s political turmoil hampered rescue efforts and the delivery of humanitarian aid, prompting hundreds of protestors in Derna to demand government accountability. As the hope for locating survivors diminished, relief efforts turned to tackle the worsening humanitarian crisis with more than forty thousand Libyans displaced, mounting medical supply shortages, and contaminated drinking water, raising fears of possible disease outbreaks.
Migration issues also continue to present grave humanitarian concerns. Libya’s porous borders and fractured security situation make it a top transit country for people trying to reach Europe, with smugglers sending migrants across the Mediterranean in unsafe, overcrowded vessels. The business has contributed to the nearly thirty thousand people who have died or disappeared crossing the sea since 2014.
In 2023, the number of deaths and disappearances on the Central Mediterranean route increased compared to the previous five years. According to the UN, Libyan forces have also committed significant human rights abuses against migrants detained in Libyan facilities, including forced labor, extortion, torture, and sexual assault.
A mass grave containing the bodies of sixty-five migrants was discovered in March 2024, leading the UN human rights chief to launch a full investigation. Meanwhile, the sex and labor trafficking of migrants and asylum-seekers at the hands of criminal networks, militia groups, government officials, and private employers remains largely unchecked.
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