Ben Munster

Sadiq Al-Kabir says the attempted takeover by hostile government forces has backfired.

Al-Kabir has been in self-imposed exile in Istanbul since forces raided the central bank’s premises on Aug. 26, abducting bank employees and installing a puppet governor. The Libyan central bank chief in control of billions of dollars of oil wealth said he expects to be reinstated, after being forced to flee from militias that tried to take over his institution at gunpoint.

“We’re assessing the situation right now — we might return very soon,” Sadiq Al-Kabir told POLITICO on Thursday by phone from Istanbul. Al-Kabir has been in self-imposed exile in Istanbul since forces aligned with the government in Tripoli — one of two that have ruled over the divided country since its bloody disintegration in 2011 — raided the central bank’s premises on Aug. 26, abducting bank employees and installing a puppet governor.

The Central Bank of Libya is the sole legal repository of billions of dollars a month in revenue from the sale of oil produced in the east of the country. That has made it the subject of frequent hot disputes between the warring factions that have vied for supremacy since the civil war that destroyed the Libyan state and led to the assassination of dictator Muammar Gaddafi.

In response to the attempted takeover last month, authorities in the country’s oil-rich east, who are more supportive of the governor, halted oil production and exports. The move briefly caused a spike in the price of oil and provoked fears of economic meltdown in the country, which generates almost all its revenue from oil and gas sales.

But the governor is confident that the two sides will soon be able to resolve the spat and restore oil shipments after a court ruled Tuesday that the takeover by forces aligned with Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, the president in Tripoli, was illegal. He said he expects to retake his post as soon as he receives assurances from security forces in Tripoli of his safe return, with his deputy governing in the interim.

However, Claudia Gazzini, senior Libya analyst at the conflict-prevention NGO Crisis Group, said Al-Kabir’s return is still far from guaranteed because Libyan court rulings are applied inconsistently. The court that ruled in favor of Al-Kabir was the Benghazi Court of Appeal in eastern Libya, which may struggle to implement its decision in Tripoli.

On Tuesday, talks hosted by the U.N. Special Mission in Libya resulted in the two governments tentatively agreeing to resolve their differences over the Libyan bank and appoint a new governor and board. However, talks have since stalled, and the two governments have asked for more time to make a decision.

Al-Kabir said he saw the takeover as part of a power grab by the government of Dbeibeh, which wants to restore its influence after losing a key ally on the High Council of State last month. The advisory body is tasked with negotiating critical matters like budget planning as part of a power-sharing agreement brokered in 2020 with the east, which is dominated by the warlord Khalifa Haftar.

The governor argued that Tripoli’s takeover attempt failed because its militias were only able to gain control over the central bank’s operational systems and couldn’t maintain its international legitimacy and relationships with foreign lenders. The Libyan institution’s relationships with such banks are vital for turning its dollars from oil sales into hard cash that can be paid out to some 2 million public sector employees around the country.

He said he still has the backing of the international markets and is communicating with counterparts at the International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve and commercial banks like JPMorgan. The forces that carried out the takeover will likely guarantee his safe return, now that it’s clear the central bank can’t operate in his absence, Al-Kabir argued.

“The forces and militias on the ground believe the [takeover] was wrong,” he said. “[The Tripoli government] gave them rumors that the international community was supporting the decision. But the reality is completely different.” “Dbeibeh made a mistake,” he added. “He might be liable to the law.”

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This article has been updated to clarify Crisis Group is an NGO.

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