Khaled Mahmoud
Ordinary Libyans Pay the Price of
the Power Struggle
By 2023, the Libyan crisis had entered a phase of stagnation and failure. In May, Bashaga was replaced by Osama Hammad, a bureaucrat with no political ambitions, Hamad followed Haftar and Saleh’s directives, as reflected in his public statements. Dbeibah and Hammad symbolised the dual power structure that has plagued Libya’s institutions, with two rival authorities constantly disputing legitimacy, to no avail.
Storm Daniel, which struck the eastern cities and caused the worst disaster in Libya’s history, was not enough to push the political players to negotiate and resolve their differences. On September 9, the people of Derna woke up to a disaster. The torrent coming from the Derna Valley swept away neighbourhoods along its banks and caused great destruction in the city centre.
Eyewitnesses spoke of an indescribable event, saying they heard an explosion late at night, followed by a second one about fifteen minutes later. Minutes after that, floodwaters rushed through the centre of the city, destroying everything in their path. Martin Griffiths, the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator, stated that “climate and capacity have collided to cause this terrible, terrible tragedy.” Meanwhile, the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, Professor Petteri Taalas, shed light on the situation in Libya by saying: “The tragedy in Libya highlights the devastating and cascading consequences of extreme weather on fragile states.”
The struggle for power between the rival GNU and GNS, along with the lack of central authority, shaped the entire disaster. Ordinary Libyans paid the price for the failure of their political leaders. The storm caused catastrophicflooding, with 4,333 people confirmed dead and about 8,540 missing, including 930 migrant workers. Many of these workers lived in the hardest-hit areas of Derna, suggesting that the real death toll is likely higher than reported.
Unlike the divided political leaderships competing for power, Libyans responded in unity and answered the call for relief in the affected areas. In this way, the floods seemed to dissolve the divisions between them. However, this disaster was not an isolated incident. After nearly a decade of chaos and conflict, the political fragmentation in the country had already severely weakened the infrastructure and worn down state institutions.
Political Fragmentation
The existence of about 140 government institutions, split between the east and west, aggravated the situation. While Libya had never faced a disaster of such magnitude before, the political divisions further complicated both the response and relief efforts, hampering a unified and effective recovery. Wolfram Lacher, a Libya specialist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), noted that the government in the east, the GNS, was weak and lacked the mechanisms to respond to the disaster. Meanwhile, the UN-supported government in Tripoli had no authority in the east due to political divisions.
The disaster failed to unite the rival powers, even when it came to reconstruction efforts. The GNS called for an international conference to oversee the rebuilding of Derna and other areas devastated by Storm Daniel. Meanwhile, the GNU, confident that local resources were enough, officially sought assistance from the World Bank to manage the reconstruction funds for the affected regions.
The situation became worse when the High Council of State (a consultative body based in Tripoli) refused to approve a budget for storm recovery, citing national security concerns. The head of the UN mission at the time, Abdoulaye Bathily, saw his appeals for an end to the chaos go unanswered. He expressed concern about conflicting initiatives from various Libyan factions for the reconstruction of Derna and other affected areas.
However, no one heeded his repeated warnings that these unilateral efforts would backfire, further deepening the divisions within the country, obstructing reconstruction, and going against public opinion. Amid the complexities surrounding reconstruction and compensation, the authorities have ignored both local and international calls for an independent investigation into the failures in managing the disaster, with no effective international mechanism in place to pursue such inquiries.
Amnesty International highlighted that the two rival authorities mishandled the response, failing to investigate the responsibilities of those in power to protect the people’s rights to life, health, and other human rights, as part of criminal investigations into the disaster. Bathily realised his efforts to engage the main parties in a new political dialogue had failed, and he resigned abruptly, leaving the UN mission in disarray once again.
Ongoing Instability
Since 2011, the Libyan conflict has had an astronomical cost, affecting every part of the economy. Growth has not only slowed but has become highly volatile. Mouin Kikhia, chairman of the Libyan Democratic Institute, believes this is the moment to stop foreign interference, suggesting that now is the time for outsiders to step back from imposing their directives.
Hopes for Egyptian-Turkish mediation, following nearly a decade of diplomatic crisis, had once offered a glimmer of optimism for resolving disputes in Libya. However, this hope has since faded. The core issue preventing elections in Libya is that those who currently hold wealth and power through their theoretically temporary positions have no incentive to negotiate their exits or subject their positions to the risks of an electoral process. The disparity between the West and the East of the country exacerbates internal instability and raises the risk of regional conflict in the Mediterranean.
Central Bank Crisis
Libya’s political deadlock deepened when Central Bank Governor Siddek Elkaber clashed with the GNU over government spending. This conflict escalated when Mohamed al-Menfi, head of the Presidential Council, who had seldom involved himself directly in Libya’s internal crisis, unexpectedly dismissed Elkaber in August 2024. Both the Tobruk-based parliament and Haftar’s forces in the east opposed the move. The dispute led to a halt in oil production, affecting global oil prices and threatening to escalate into the worst crisis in years.
International diplomatic efforts have centred on preserving the independence and integrity of the National Oil Corporation (NOC) and the Central Bank. However, this has become increasingly uncertain after the dismissal of the NOC chairman in 2022 and the crisis over control of the Central Bank. After mediation by the UN mission, both governments in the west and in the east reached an agreement to appoint Naji Muhammad Issa Belqassim as new governor to the bank. Despite the fact that oil production was restarted ever since, many challenges remain over the handling of oil reserves in the divided country.
Despite Libya’s substantial oil reserves, the economy remains in dire straits. Internal conflicts have led to frequent closures of oil fields and ports, reducing production and government revenue, which has further weakened the economy.
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