Following the setback in Syria, russia may decide to place a new bet on Libya in a struggle for control in the region.
Despite the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, backed by Russia, Moscow isn’t willing to give up on ambitions in the Mediterranean region and is currently trying to find backup options. While the Kremlin still fruitlessly negotiates with the new Syrian authorities — the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group — it is already gradually relocating military assets to Libya.
The transfer of forces from Syria to Libya is observed by anonymous American officials cited by CNN. The Russians view the seaport of Benghazi as an alternative to the naval base in Tartus, and the Al Khadim airbase to Khmeimim, accordingly. In the meantime, Moscow is pressuring the commander of the Libyan army, Khalifa Haftar to secure Russia’s claim to a port in Benghazi.
Defense Express reminds that in 2011, a civil war began in Libya. It lasted, with interruptions, until 2020 and ended with the de facto division of the country: in the west, including the capital Tripoli, the Government of National Unity rules; in the east, with its center in Tobruk, the Government of National Stability is in power. The latter one is who russia is trying to reach an agreement with. The Kremlin also backed Khalifa Haftar before, in particular by providing weapons and Wagner Group mercenaries.
Noteworthy is also the fact that Khalifa Haftar’s relations with Moscow go back a long time. In the late 1970s, the current Libyan army commander took the famous courses for the command staff titled Vystrel, followed by his studying at the Frunze Military Academy in the early 1980s. On the other hand, in the 1990s he got American citizenship, and in 1996 he allegedly unsuccessfully tried to raise an uprising against Muammar Gaddafi.
Since the beginning of the civil war in 2011, Haftar has taken an active part in fighting. Starting 2017, he received the utmost support from the russian federation and launched an offensive on Tripoli in 2019. Although the campaign failed, it led to a ceasefire, signed between the parties in 2021.
For a better perspective on this war, Defense Express recommends the 2020 article by retired American four-star admiral James Stavridis for Bloomberg, describing the main reasons and nuances of the conflict with much insight, calling it a proxy war between russia and Turkiye.
Now, after the exile from Syria, russian desperately needs new military strongholds in the region, otherwise, it cannot use levers of influence on the southern flank of NATO and sea gates to its African assets. But the only way they can support Khalifa Haftar is with direct military support and weapon supplies. The Libyan commander, in turn, can use these new resources to resume the hostilities and capture the entire country.
As grim as it sounds, the Kremlin is unlikely to have the power to do what was once done for Syria. At this point, russia cannot even organize something similar to the Syrian Express that streamlined the flow of lethal aid and troops to the protege. For once, because the access through Bosphorus is denied by Turkiye, and for twice because of the global shortage of weapons to supply.
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