Kaan Devecioglu
The cooperation agreement signed between the Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) and the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO), covering geological exploration in four marine fields, sits at the intersection of Libya’s post-war economic recovery and Turkey’s Eastern Mediterranean and Africa energy vision. This agreement has multidimensional meanings such as energy security, geopolitical sphere of influence and economic integration, rather than a technical discovery process.
In the process of restructuring the energy resources of a country like Libya, which is in the process of political transition, foreign partnerships are critical both in terms of increasing production capacity and re-establishing international trust. Turkey’s involvement in this process should also be considered as a reflection of past military, diplomatic and economic cooperation in the energy sector.
Benefits of the Agreement for Libya
and Turkey
Libya’s declared daily production target of 2 million barrels by 2024 is not only a technical capacity increase target for this country’s energy sector, but also the economic basis of its national reconstruction vision. The daily production level, which is currently around 1.2 million barrels, is considerably lower than in the pre-war period. Closing this gap and reaching the targeted level is not only possible with the rehabilitation of existing sites.
The discovery of new reserves is directly related to geological studies to be carried out, especially in marine (offshore) areas. The hydrocarbon potential off the coast of Libya, which has not yet been fully utilized, stands out as a sustainability element in this country’s energy strategy. The agreement signed with TPAO is a technical partnership model that can meet this need.
From Turkey’s point of view, this agreement has its counterparts on different levels. First of all, in Turkey’s energy supply security strategy, providing resource diversity and reducing import dependency stand out as a main goal. In this context, TPAO’s natural gas discoveries in the Black Sea have been expanded with the outward opening process that started with exploration activities in Somalia.
The agreement signed with Libya is a step that complements this enlargement both geographically and geopolitically. Turkey’s goal of consolidating its position in the Eastern Mediterranean within the framework of the Maritime Jurisdiction Areas Agreement signed with Libya in 2019 has gained a more concrete ground with the energy activities carried out in the field. In this context, the seismic research and possible drilling activities to be carried out by TPAO in Libyan waters should be read as a move that provides not only economic but also strategic depth.
TPAO-NOC cooperation has a meaningful place not only in the context of bilateral relations but also within the framework of Turkey’s African energy vision. Increasing energy demand in Africa has led to a reshaping of global interest in the continent’s natural gas and oil resources. Technical cooperation that will strengthen Turkey’s position in this field, where actors such as China, France, the USA and Russia are in competition, make strategic contributions in terms of both energy security and foreign policy diversification.
Such an energy-based partnership with Libya reinforces the energy pillar of Turkey’s multifaceted engagement strategy in the region, while at the same time adding economic depth to the geopolitical equation in the Mediterranean.
The Strategic Importance of
the Agreement for Libya and Challenges
Offshore power generation is a more costly and technically complex process compared to onshore generation. Considering the long-standing internal conflicts and inadequacies in Libya, high-cost investments are required for the sustainable progress of activities in this field. It is estimated that each deep-sea drilling can be carried out at a cost of approximately 60 to 120 million dollars, and if production is started, the total investment cost, including platform installations, transportation lines and processing facilities, can reach 3 to 5 billion dollars.
It is not possible for Libya to meet this level of financing alone. For this reason, establishing a partnership with an actor such as TPAO, which has a strong technical capacity, public support and long-term planning, provides a critical advantage for Libya. In addition, such partnerships mean a positive signal for foreign investors and facilitate the integration of fields into international markets.
It is clear that the agreement will not directly achieve Libya’s production target of 2 million barrels; Because the agreement is currently in the exploration and research phase, not production. However, this stage is the first and perhaps the most important link in the chain of production increase. Geological surveys will not only reveal the existence of new reserves, but also prove the economic feasibility of these fields.
This will not only mean an increase in technical capacity for Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC), but will also support Libya to regain the image of a reliable producer country in the oil and gas markets. Therefore, such technical cooperation should be considered as structural investments that directly support Libya’s goal of increasing energy production.
On the other hand, there are difficulties in achieving the long-term success of such cooperation without taking into account the main structural problems faced by the Libyan energy sector. In this sense, political polarization is still one of the most important obstacles.
Although the tension between the Tripoli-based National Unity Government in Western Libya and the Benghazi-based House of Representatives in the East over the sharing of energy revenues and control over oil fields threatens the sustainability of field work, it can be said that the relations developed by Turkey with all parties within the framework of the “One Libya” policy are the main determining factor in overcoming these difficulties.
In addition, the lack of energy infrastructure, aging refineries, an unregulated power grid and security risks seriously undermine Libya’s ability to attract investment. The intervention of militia groups in energy facilities or the use of production areas as an element of political pressure causes foreign investors to approach the projects in Libya at a distance. In this context, in addition to technical support, Turkey should also contribute more to Libya’s institutional capacity building, security sector reform and energy infrastructure modernization.
As a result, the cooperation agreement signed between TPAO and NOC is an important tool that will contribute to the reconstruction of Libya’s economic and technical capacity. This agreement will not only produce seismic surveys and drilling data; It will serve to remap Libya’s energy resources, improve the international investment climate, and increase Turkey’s regional influence through energy diplomacy. However, the success of this process is not only technical; At the same time, it necessitates a holistic approach in political, legal and institutional dimensions.
Otherwise, the strategic gains expected to be obtained from the sea may face difficulties such as structural weaknesses on the coast. For this reason, it is in the common interest of both countries to maintain Turkey-Libya energy cooperation with a long-term and multidimensional strategic vision.
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