The Sentry
The Great Fuel Heist Must Not Escape Justice Amid the sustained kleptocratic boom that Libya has experienced since the end of its civil war in 2020, fuel smuggling quickly rose to become the most lucrative scheme.
Once pursued by scattered opera tors, fuel smuggling has become a multi-billion-dollar enterprise pursued by the country’s incumbent rulers — with international backing — that can further derail the nation’s legitimate economy.
Given its sheer scale, fuel smuggling can no longer be portrayed merely as a byproduct of weak governance. In 2021, Libya’s top rulers effectively embraced it as part of a broader, systematic strategy to siphon massive wealth from the population.
Between 2022 and 2024, approximately $20 billion was di verted in this manner — funds urgently needed for health services, household essentials, infrastructure, education, and other social programs.
Much of the wealth was moved abroad, while another portion was used to import weapons and cement the grip of unelected incumbents through repression and armed force, ultimately blocking any path to free and credible elections.
Libya’s fuel smuggling crisis also has a geopolitical dimension.
It has buoyed non-state actors such as Sudan’s RSF in a genocidal war and helped foreign powers like Russia and the UAE deepen their involvement in Libya — and, by extension, in sub-Saharan Africa. Ultimately, the crisis transcends the fuel trade.
It reveals a shattered system of governance wherein public institutions are increasingly subordinated to a small handful of illegitimate rulers reliant on coercion. The reach of Libya’s rulers now goes well beyond the realm of security.
They have learned to penetrate the heart of the legitimate economy by installing loyalists in key administrative positions. And because Libya’s current calm hinges on these very same factions coexisting without open warfare, any sudden shakeup may precipitate a broad conflagration.
The January 2025 removal of NOC Chairman Farhat Benqdara and the appointment of Chairman Masoud Suleiman signal a push toward greater transparency, including efforts to roll back opaque crude-for-fuel swaps.
Yet entrenched profiteers will resist. While one notable player in the fuel smuggling sector — Brigade 128 within the LAAF — was forcibly dismantled in early 2025, more powerful brigades linked directly to Saddam Haftar, Dabaiba, and other leading figures remain active and continue to thrive.
Even if fuel smuggling recedes somewhat in 2025, its repercussions will persist.
Armed group leaders and political figures, now accustomed to vast profits, can repurpose their accumulated wealth as seed capital for other ventures. A mere reduction in fuel imports is not enough.
Fundamental questions must be answered:
Where did the stolen billions go, and how can Libya deliver justice to those who stole from its population?
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