Nine years after the fall of Muammar Qaddafi, Libya is struggling to end its political division and violent conflict which in turn has contributed to an array of socioeconomic challenges and fraying the social cohesion.
PART (III)
ATTITUDES TOWARD THE UN-LED LPDF ROADMAP
Majority of Libyans say they know nothing about the UN led LPDF roadmap.
• The majority (70%) of Libyans say that they know nothing about the UNLED LPDF roadmap to have credible, inclusive, and democratic national elections by the end of 2021, presented in late 2020 to help resolve the conflict in Libya. Most of those who said they knew about it (26%) knew mainly about the December 2021 election.
• 15% stated that they knew that it sets the process for the formation of a new executive authority to organize the elections.
• Awareness of the roadmap is higher among men. Almost twice as many men (38%) knew a lot or a little about the roadmap, compared to women (21%), but the majority (62%) of men still knew only a little or had no information about it.
• Those with university degrees were more likely to mention that the roadmap was agreed on in Tunis and sets the process for the formation of a new executive authority to organize the elections.
FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION
Over half of the Libyans who are aware of the UN led LPDF roadmap are satisfied with its progress and are confident in the sustainability of its outputs.
• Out of those who knew a lot or a little about the LPDF roadmap, 54% reported that they are somewhat satisfied or very satisfied with the progress of the implementation so far compared to 25% who expressed their dissatisfaction.
• Two thirds of Libyans are either fairly (37%) or very (24% confident in the ability of the interim government to lead the country to credible, inclusive, and democratic national elections in December 2021. They are also fairly or very confident that the LPDF roadmap and the elections will produce a lasting peaceful and stable outcome for Libya.
• 22% of Libyans expressed lack of confidence in credible, inclusive, and democratic national elections in December 2021, while 15% expressed doubt in the interim government’s capacity to lead the country to credible, inclusive, and democratic national elections in December 2021 and that this will produce a lasting peaceful and stable outcome for Libya.
• No significant differences were observed by any of the key demographics in these statements.
Libyans, especially those aged 18-24 expect the return of violent conflict during or following elections.
• When asked about the likelihood of a return to violent conflict during or following elections, half of Libyans (50%) reported it is likely (37%) or very likely (13%). 40% also reported that it is very unlikely or unlikely.
• Those aged 18-24 are more pessimistic about the return to violence: 68% of those aged 18-24 said that a return to violence is likely compared to 47% of those aged 25-34.
• Similarly, Libyans living in urban areas believed that a return to violence is likely (52%) compared to 46% of their rural counterpart.
PAST AND FUTURE VOTING BEHAVIOUR
Half the population are registered to vote by the Libyan High National Elections Commission.
• Half of the respondents stated that they are registered to vote by the Libyan High National Elections Commission.
• Male respondents were more likely to report being registered voters: 59% of males stated they are registered in comparison to 42% of their female counterpart.
• 54% of Libyans living in rural areas were registered compared to 49% of their urban counterpart.
Election participation rate has decreased significantly since the 2012 general national congress elections.
• Since the 2012 general national congress elections, participation have decreased significantly by almost half.
• While 46% of Libyans stated that they took part in the 2012 national elections, only the fifth stated that they participated in the elections that took place afterwards including; 2014 Constitution Drafting Assembly Elections, 2014 House of Representatives Elections and the 2019 Libyan local municipal elections.
• Male respondents were more likely to say they took part in the elections. Over twice as many men have participated in 2014 and 2019 elections compared to women. 52% of males participated in the 2012 elections compared to 41% of their female counterpart.
• Participation in local municipal elections was higher among those living in the South. 43% of Libyans living in the South reported voting in the 2019 Libyan local municipal elections compared to 21% in the West and 17% in the East.
Almost the fifth of Libyans say they will not register because they do not want to vote.
• 35% of Libyan reported that they intend to register to vote for the first time. 18% said they will not register because they do not want to vote.
• While 57% of those aged 18-24 said that they intend to register to vote for the first time, 20% said that they will not because they do not want to vote. 20% of those aged 25-34 also said they will not register because they do not want to vote compared to16% of those aged 35-59.
• Female respondents are more likely to register to vote for the first time: 38% of females stated that they intend to register to vote for the first time compared to 32% of their male counterpart. It is worth noting however that 20% of females (1 out of 5) are still not planning to register because they don’t plan to vote compared to 16% of their male counterpart.
PAST AND FUTURE VOTING BEHAVIOUR
Participation rate in the upcoming December elections is expected to be the highest since the 2012 general national congress elections.
• The majority (76%) of all Libyans stated that they are likely or very likely to vote in the upcoming December elections. 14% are less likely to vote. This represents a largely optimistic outlook of the political situation.
• Male respondents (80%) who intend to vote in the upcoming elections are significantly higher than their female counterpart (71%).
• When asked about what can motivate them to vote in the upcoming elections, respondents reported the following; if the candidates were true to their promise (15%), if security was guaranteed (11%), if the election process is serious and transparent (10%) and nothing (8%). However, most respondents reported other reasons such as stability, security and the socioeconomic improvement of the country.
• Those aged 18-24 are less likely to report any reason that may motivate them to vote in the upcoming elections. 15% of those aged 18-24 said nothing can motivate them to vote in the upcoming elections compared to 8% and 7% of those aged 25-34 and 35-59.
CONCERN ABOUT ELECTION VIOLENCE
The quarter of Libyans are very concerned about electoral violence in general and to them personally.
• Most Libyans are concerned to some extent about intimidation and violence around the planned December elections. Only the third of the respondents are not at all concerned about violence to them personally, while 23% are not concerned in general. Conversely, 24% of respondents were very concerned with electoral violence in general and to them personally.
• Women are more likely to express concerns about election violence. 77% of female respondents say they are very concerned about violence around the elections in general, compared to 71% of males.
• Libyans living in rural areas expressed the highest levels of concern regarding electoral violence in general compared to those living in urban areas. 31% of those living in rural areas say they are quite or very concerned about regarding electoral violence in general compared to those living in urban areas 27%.
TRUST IN SOURCES OF INFORMATION AND THE ROLE OF MEDIA
Libyans are likely to trust friends and family. The Parliament is trusted the least.
• The main sources of information on the peace process in Libya, including the elections, are the television (52%) and the internet (41%). However, Libyans are likely to trust a lot their friends and family (38%), and Libyan Radio (20%). Overall, the most trusted sources of information about the peace process in Libya, including the elections, reported by the respondents were friends and family (70%), Libyan Radio & TV (53%), international media & religious leaders (48%), Libyan social media (46%) and election candidates (45%), while the least trusted source of information were members of Parliament. 60% of Libyans said they do not trust members of the Parliament (not very much or not at all).
• Female respondents are more likely to trust candidates for the elections (49% compared to 41% of men), Libyan television (56% compared to 39% of men), religious leaders (59% compared to 46% of men), and Libyan Radio (59% compared to 42% of men).
• Those aged 18-24 are more likely to consult the internet for information about the peace process, while those aged 35-59 rely more on television. Overall, internet was mentioned by 57% of those aged 18-24, 48% of those aged 25-34 and 35% of those aged 35-59. TV was mentioned by 56% of those aged 35-59, 50% of those aged 18-24 and 41% of those aged 25-34.
Libyans expect media outlet and platforms to play an important role around the election.
• Libyans expect media outlets to have an active role to ensure that fair, credible and inclusive elections take place. In addition to reporting the results of the elections (88%) and the development of elections’ campaigns (80%), Libyans expect media actors to: provide a platform for the public to communicate their concerns, opinions, and needs (85%); to cover the elections in a non-inflammatory way, to discourage violence (83%); to combat/ correct false or misleading information circulating about the elections (83%); and to educate voters on how to exercise their democratic rights (78%).
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This research report is made possible by the support of the UK Conflict, Stability, and Security Fund (CSSF)
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BBC Media Action in England & Wales
