Vincenzo Giallongo
Movement in Libya: Haftar’s troops move towards the border with Algeria and Tunisia. They may be aiming to control an airport. Helped by the Russians. Khalifa Haftar ‘s troops are moving toward Ghadames, the oasis near the border with Algeria and Tunisia, rekindling the danger of a new internal war in Libya.
It is not certain that the leader of Cyrenaica wants to return to aiming, as some say, toward Tripoli. The objective, which he is pursuing together with his Russian allies , could be more modest: to take over the airport located in the oasis area. He would use it as a support point for himself and for Moscow, which would thus increasingly make Libya its hub for moving toward sub-Saharan Africa, where it already has many friendly governments. The soldiers led by General Haftar’s son, Saddam, could come to control the border with Algeria and Tunisia, after having already taken control of that of Egypt to the east.
In this way they would encircle Tripoli in a sort of “siege”, where the Dbeibah government is based, supported by the international community, the Turks and a great rival of the leader of Cyrenaica.
Why is Haftar moving his troops?
His zone of power in the country has consolidated, but I don’t think he has any interest in causing incidents. Russia, with the soldiers of the former Wagner, is giving him a hand. However, I don’t think that all this could be a prelude to an attack on Tripoli. In the first days of April there were already rumors of movements towards the capital by Haftar, but then nothing happened.
In short, it’s difficult to understand what the true intentions are?
Haftar’s troops are commanded by his two sons, Saddam and Khaled; the former, in particular, is very instinctive: two days ago he wanted to close the oil wells to spite Spain, which controls them in part with Repsol, then he realized that 40% of his income comes from there and he backtracked. Haftar could be interested in taking the airport near Ghadames, to strengthen his contacts and allow the Russians to move even more freely: Moscow could use it to move towards Mauritania and other countries in the area that interest it.
Will we continue from there towards other conquests?
I have my doubts that Haftar wants to go to a clash with the recognized Libyan government. At this moment, Westerners do not have much interest in Libya, because they believe that its instability is stable enough to allow each to cultivate their own interests. But if there were an escalation, they could intervene.
Are there disputes with Algeria and Tunisia that could explain such an action, given that we are right next to the border?
No; if there are movements, it is only to strengthen the positions of Haftar and the Russians. The official Libyan army, the one that refers to the government of Tripoli, is supported by the Turks, who are trying to compensate for the presence of the Russians: I believe that these movements were put in place to intimidate the rivals.
The government of Tripoli, although recognized by the international community, actually controls the city where it is based and not much more: could the acquisition of the airport be interpreted by Dbeibah as an insult and cause some friction?
We are in a country where uncertainty reigns supreme, there are also Islamic militias that are not on either side of the two major contenders, militias to which, among other things, Italy has turned to slow the flow of migrants. I repeat, the only thing that could interest Haftar is the airport. It would, however, be confirmation that Libya is increasingly becoming Russia’s hub in Africa: the part of the territory in Haftar’s hands will become pro-Russian.
Already now Russian men and resources destined for the Sahara pass through there.
That’s right, the Russians already have control of other airports; if they were to control this one too, they could expand their interests even further. I believe that they will not target Tripoli and that it will not come to a further clash. My personal opinion, however, is that in general they will not get anywhere. I think this is a demonstration action by Haftar, who wants to present himself as the strongman of Libya . The airport, a possible target of the action, is not defended: unlike the leader of Tripolitania, the official government has only a few battalions of local soldiers, a Turkish contingent and, scattered here and there, American and French companies: Haftar is much better equipped.
Will Haftar’s assault on Tripoli not happen, at least for now?
I don’t think he’ll throw himself into a conflict by burning everything he’s building, even with the West: he receives funding from Europe. The real danger is that Libya will confirm itself even more as a hub for the Russians, who are positioning themselves better and better by exploiting the West’s inactivity. What is certain is that, by conquering Ghadames, Haftar would somehow surround Tripoli, making his pressure on the central government felt even more.
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