Yasmina Abouzzohour and Tarik M. Yousef

Key Takeaways

Trust in the military is surprisingly high in the Middle East and North Africa: Despite military involvement in coups, conflicts, political interference, and economic encroachment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the majority of surveyed citizens express high trust in the armed forces, significantly more than other national institutions.

Trust in the military reflects disillusionment with politics and the need for stability: Combined with people’s lack of confidence in parliaments and governments, the military’s high ratings signal a form of governance fatigue. At the same time, significant trust in the armed forces amongst those who feel safe indicates that the institution is envisioned as a stabilizing force.

Safety, ideological, and economic factors explain public trust in the military: In addition to personal safety, ideology plays an important role, with conservatives displaying high levels of trust and Islamists showing lower levels. Additionally, trusting political institutions and being part of lower economic classes positively impact trust in the military, though this varies depending on the regime type.

The military engenders trust among proponents of democracy: This surprising finding in civilian-led countries suggests that many do not see a contradiction between trusting the military and supporting democracy. This is consistent with growing support for a strong executive amongst citizens in the region in the face of deteriorating government effectiveness and socio-economic outcomes.

Introduction

The institution of the military is experiencing a resurgence around the globe. Citizens are placing higher levels of trust in the armed forces—even in regions with a history of military interference or domination.

In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where military elites hold a great deal of political and economic power, around 70% of surveyed citizens in 2021-2022 expressed significant trust in the armed forces. This surpasses the levels of trust accorded to elected officials, civil society, and the news media.

The military’s centrality to the politics and stability of this region was reaffirmed in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings and subsequent developments. Indeed, the military’s support for transition or the status quo dictated the trajectory of events in many countries. 

In Tunisia, the army leadership’s decision not to support President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali led to his ousting.

At the same time, its adherence to civilian authority after 2011 facilitated a relatively smooth transition. In contrast, the Syrian army’s loyalty to President Bashar Assad’s regime fueled a brutal civil war that has lasted for over a decade, resulting in widespread devastation and humanitarian crises.

As a result, MENA armies have been at the heart of policy debates and media scrutiny. This discourse has predominantly centered around the role of military elites in politics, and little attention has been paid to the public and the paradoxical high trust it places in this opaque institution.

This issue brief analyzes public opinion data to explore military-society relations in the MENA region. It begins by examining the military’s role during modern times, focusing on patterns of political and economic interference.

It then explores data on trust in the armed forces in nine countries across the MENA region and identifies the characteristics that make citizens more or less likely to trust them. Building on these findings, it provides insights into the broader dynamics of governance, stability, and public sentiment in the region.

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Yasmina Abouzzohour is a nonresident fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs (ME Council) and a fellow and lecturer at Princeton University. Abouzzohour’s research focuses on public trust in the military, public opinion, and regime behavior in the Middle East and North Africa.

Tarik M. Yousef is a senior fellow and director of the ME Council. His career has spanned the academic and think tank world, including at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. His involvement with public policy includes working in the Middle East Department at the International Monetary Fund, the Middle East and North Africa region at the World Bank, and the UN Millennium Project.

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