Omar Swehli

Since the start of the Libyan conflict in 2014, Khalifa Haftar has played a pivotal role in the political and military scene as he sought to control Libya with the support of regional and international powers, including Russia. Although Russia supported Haftar through weapons, mercenaries, and political cover, regional and international transformations may prompt Moscow to reevaluate its position.
Among the reasons that may prompt Russia to abandon Khalifa Haftar are: (a) Changing international and regional balances and attempts to reach consensus with international powers: (b) Russia, which seeks to strengthen its influence in North Africa, may find its continuing support for Haftar puts it in confrontation with the United States, the European Union, and Britain, who support a comprehensive political process in Libya and reject the presence of Russian military bases under Europe’s feet.
Regional consensus with countries such as Qatar and Turkey, which support the Tripoli government, and are important economic and political partners for Russia.
Abandoning Haftar may be a way to avoid direct confrontation with these forces, which would harm Russian economic interests.
There is economic and military pressure in terms of the burden of support, as Russia supports Haftar through the Wagner Group and other forms of military support, which requires financial and military resources. With Moscow’s preoccupation with other conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, Libya may become a strategic burden.
This may expose Russia to more international sanctions, as Russia’s involvement in Libya may expose it to more Western sanctions, something Moscow seeks to avoid, especially in light of its worsening economic crisis.
Russia did not reap what it hoped for from supporting Haftar, as he is not internationally recognized and has not and will not achieve his goals of controlling all of Libya. Rather, his campaign on Tripoli faltered in 2019, which weakened his position as a strategic ally, capable of achieving Russian goals.
Russia is aware that internal opposition to Haftar is growing, especially in the areas he controls, which makes his support a political risk. That is why I believe that Russia will accept the search for political alternatives, and may see in abandoning Haftar an opportunity to open up to the internationally recognized Tripoli government or other Libyan figures that would guarantee it a foothold in the country without relying on Haftar alone.
Moscow may seek to adopt a position more compatible with the United Nations and major countries, especially with the push towards elections and a political solution that guarantees power-sharing and acceptance of a foothold for Russia.
There are understandings with Turkey that may encourage Russia to abandon Haftar, as Turkey and Russia have common interests in many files, from Syria to Ukraine. Abandoning Haftar may be part of a broader understanding with Turkey to ensure continued cooperation between the two parties. International pressure against the Wagner Group may force Russia to withdraw Wagner from Libya, and this is enough to bring down Haftar.
With the increasing international demands to withdraw these forces from Libya, Moscow may find itself forced to back down from supporting Haftar.
Is abandoning Haftar possible?
Personally, I think it is not unlikely, especially when his presence becomes an obstacle to achieving Russian interests in Libya and the emergence of alternatives capable of securing Russian influence in Libya, such as supporting a new figure or dealing with multiple parties.
Russia’s abandonment of Khalifa Haftar depends on developments in the Libyan and regional arena. Moscow is not committed to Haftar as a person, and its sudden abandonment of Bashar al-Assad confirms this. Rather, it is committed to what achieves its strategic interests. There is no permanent friend or enemy in politics, but rather permanent interests. When the cost of supporting him becomes higher than the benefits he brings, Russia may tend to change its alliances, just as what happen in other similar files such as Syria.
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