Kaan Devecioglu
Concerns of Italy and Europe
Over Russia’s Presence in Libya
Russia’s withdrawal from Syria and focus on Libya stands out as a development that threatens Italy’s geopolitical interests in particular. Libya is a priority country for Italy in terms of energy security, migration management and regional stability.
Russia’s increasing influence in Libya by settling in strategic bases such as Tobruk and Maaten al-Sarra could weaken Italy’s control over energy infrastructures and deepen instability in Libya, while also increasing migration flows to Europe. Indeed, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has evaluated these moves by Russia as a threat and called on the European Union and NATO to be more active in this regard.
Russia’s activities in Libya directly affect not only Italy but also the energy security and migration policies of the European Union. While European countries are trying to turn to alternative energy suppliers to reduce their energy dependence on Russia after the Ukraine War, Russia’s access to energy infrastructure in Libya jeopardizes these efforts.
Although the European Union has made diplomatic and economic efforts to ensure stability in Libya, full coordination has not been achieved among member states on this issue. While France is focusing more on Libya with its decreasing influence in the Sahel region, Germany is adopting a more cautious policy and prioritizing economic aid. However, Russia’s increasing influence requires Europe to develop a more comprehensive strategy.
Italy is one of the European countries that has been following the developments in Libya most closely, and its geographical proximity to the country increases Italy’s sensitivity over Libya. The presence of major Italian energy companies such as ENI in Libya is an important factor shaping the efforts of the Roman government to maintain stability in the region. However, Russia’s increasing influence in Libya through its military and paramilitary forces threatens Italy’s interests in the region.
Italy is making great efforts to establish a more effective Libya policy within the European Union and to strengthen security on NATO’s southern flank. However, the success of these efforts depends on Europe’s capacity to develop a common strategy. If an effective response is not given to Russia’s presence in Libya, not only Italy but all of Europe will feel the negative consequences of this geopolitical competition.
As a result, Russia’s withdrawal from Syria and its focus on Libya is creating a new balance of power in both the Mediterranean and Sahel regions. Moscow’s focus on strategic bases such as Tobruk and Maaten al-Sarra are remarkable steps taken to consolidate its military presence in the Mediterranean and to create new spheres of influence deep in Africa.
This situation poses serious risks, especially for Italy and other European countries, in terms of energy security, migration management and regional stability. The European Union and NATO’s failure to develop a common strategy against these developments in Libya could pave the way for Russia to further increase its influence.
In this context, it is critical for Italy to take on a leadership role and strengthen Europe’s efforts to protect its interests in Libya. However, the success of these efforts depends on the capacity of European countries to act together and to develop a comprehensive political vision that supports peace and stability in Libya. Otherwise, the current power struggle in Libya could create greater problems for Europe’s security and economic interests.
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