Abdullah Alkabir
Suddenly and unexpectedly, at this time, Mohamed Menfi, Head of the Presidential Council, announced the launch of the decrees for the National Rescue Plan, calling on members of the Presidential Council not to object to the powers that require the Council’s consensus.
The rescue plan is based on 12 presidential decrees, beginning with Presidential Decree No. 1, which suspends the effects of the law establishing the Supreme Constitutional Court, which was issued by the House of Representatives two years ago based on a ruling by the Constitutional Chamber declaring it unconstitutional.
The Presidential Council’s action coincides with the action of the United Nations Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), supported by the US administration. UNSMIL is awaiting the receipt of the Legal Committee’s final proposals by the end of this month, to begin implementing a political initiative in which the fate of these proposals will be determined by representatives of the political and military parties and other participants from other groups and components.
The conflict between the project led by UNSMIL and the Presidential Council’s project is clear, as there is no harmony between the two projects. UNSMIL will invite the conflicting parties, along with other parties, to a political dialogue that will take into account the Legal Committee’s proposals and select the agreed-upon options for proceeding to the elections. Meanwhile, the Presidential Council’s decrees undermine the powers of the conflicting parties and take a different path, one in which the House of Representatives and the High Council of State have no role. Consequently, a clash between the two projects is undoubtedly imminent.
The Presidential Council’s next steps will be more daring. It may issue a decree suspending the House of Representatives and the High Council of State, a step that would intensify the conflict. Rejection and disdain for these decrees began immediately after their publication, with the Speaker of the House of Representatives declaring them invalid and illegitimate.
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister’s statement hinted at the worst possible consequences: the entrenchment of division. The Presidential Council’s steps may place the country on the brink of total partition. The legal basis for the Presidential Council’s actions will be controversial, and no one will be able to decide on it, because the basis of the crisis and conflict is political, not legal.
Furthermore, the House of Representatives; the legislative body, has not set the right example in respecting laws and agreements, as it has violated the Constitutional Declaration, political agreements, and even the House’s Rules of Procedure.
Representatives no longer have any real authority to enforce the national interest through the House’s laws and decisions. Therefore, there is no point in rejecting or supporting them based on legal interpretation. I believe that the Presidential Council is betting on popular support for this move, especially if it is close to activating the stalled draft constitution and putting the draft constitution to a referendum.
The epic of the upcoming
political process
UN envoy Hannah Tetteh has announced during her first briefing to the UN Security Council that the legal committee tasked by the United Nations with developing legal proposals and options to resolve the political crisis will complete its work before the end of this month. The mission will evaluate these options as the basis for the political process.
Tetteh did not reveal any details about this political process, its stages, or its stakeholders. This is likely to be presented first to the permanent members of the Security Council, and await their comments and demands to ensure their support when it begins implementation.
Despite this secrecy, after carefully listening to the briefing and the statements of the Council members, one can anticipate the steps the mission will take in the coming weeks and months.
The beginning will be to develop an urgent approach to halt the acceleration toward economic collapse by pushing the conflicting parties to agree on a unified budget and implementing a package of economic and financial reforms proposed by the Central Bank Governor to halt the decline in the value of the local currency against international currencies, provide liquidity to commercial banks, and halt withdrawals from the bank’s international currency reserves to cover the deficit in government spending.
The critical level of the crisis, the state of popular discontent, and the consensus in the Security Council on the need to unify the budget as a fundamental step to curb rampant spending.
In parallel, UNSMIL will begin inviting the parties to the conflict to send names of representatives to participate in a political dialogue that will examine the Legal Committee’s proposals and select the appropriate ones to set arrangements and deadlines for the elections. Membership in the dialogue committee will not be limited to the parties to the conflict alone, but will include figures representing entities and regions not actively represented in the current government.
Taking into account the capabilities and experience of the political party controlling the House of Representatives’ decisions, including obstruction, obfuscation, and procrastination, and thwarting all political solutions that do not meet its expectations, and its ability to completely control all authorities—especially since it possesses the Bouznika laws, which some parties have accepted and others have rejected—what is expected is a new version of the Tunis-Geneva dialogue, with minor differences.
Based on past experience, we should fear that everyone will agree to form a new executive authority under the same pretexts as before: unifying divided institutions, supervising the holding of elections, and managing state affairs. Then the elections are aborted, and the eternal Speaker of Parliament returns to his favorite game: obstructing the government’s work, denying it a budget, then withdrawing confidence from it and forming a parallel government. This leaves the country in the same vicious circle, and the transitional phase continues with a resurgence of previous conflicts.
The frenzy of fake elites
Once again, in less than a month, statements by Musa Al-Koni, a member of the Presidential Council representing the south, have sparked controversy among activists and followers on social media. The previous time, he proposed an initiative to resolve the Libyan crisis, proposing a return to a system of regions and governorates, based on the principle of reducing the struggle for power and wealth by dismantling the central government and easing pressure on the capital.
This time, he spoke more daringly and explicitly, stating that Libya is an occupied country with no sovereignty over its territory. This undeclared occupation, according to his statements, is due to the Russian and Turkish forces controlling Libyan military bases. He stated that he was returning from a visit to an African country, and his plane was prevented from crossing the airspace of the Brak military base in southern Libya, on instructions from the command of the Russian forces stationed at the base.
There is, of course, nothing new in Al-Koni’s statement. Russian forces have been present in Libya since 2017 at the invitation of Khalifa Haftar and with the approval of the House of Representatives, under the banner of the Wagner Group, providing military and security services. This banner was later removed and they were officially transformed into forces affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense. They subsequently expanded, doubling their numbers and upgrading their armament, and now control military bases in the east, center, and south.
Turkish forces are also present in at least two bases in western Libya, based on a security and military memorandum of understanding concluded between the former Government of National Accord and the Turkish government to assist in repelling Haftar’s gangs and mercenaries from the capital in 2019.
Why the controversy, then, when these facts are clear and well-known? Not a single international report, not even a statement by a former UN official in Libya, not to mention the periodic reports of Security Council experts, fails to mention the Russian and Turkish military presence, along with special forces from other countries. However, these forces are far smaller in size and effectiveness than those of Russia and Turkey.
The main reason, in my opinion, is that these statements were made by a Libyan political figure who plays a role in the current executive authority. Therefore, there is no room to doubt their authenticity or downplay their importance. Also, because they reveal the Presidential Council’s inability, as the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, to take action, and are content with issuing statements and declarations that will neither liberate the country nor restore sovereignty.
It is, of course, strange that an official would maintain his position and not resign after knowing that he is not exercising the duties and responsibilities of the position, meaning that his presence is a mere figurehead with no contribution whatsoever. Moreover, they cannot be considered an acquittal because they were not accompanied by a resignation.
However, these were statements that revealed the enormity of our calamity. I do not mean here the occupation, as Al-Koni described it, nor his failure to resign, while he realizes that he and his two colleagues in the council are merely decorative pieces to beautify the scene, for positions have their own temptations and advantages that only the most determined men would disdain.
Rather, I mean the responses I read from figures who claim in all their conversations that they are brimming with patriotism and even dying for love for the homeland, and do not care about money, prestige, and positions. These are funny claims that we will attribute to the many jokes in our country these years.
These figures, swollen with patriotism, did not get angry in support of their homeland and their alleged patriotism against the foreign forces violating Libya’s sovereignty, or at the very least, call for an investigation and verification of Al-Koni’s claims, and then adopt a position commensurate with their claimed patriotism. Rather, they sharpened their tongues and pens and attacked him ferociously as if he had uttered blasphemy.
They found no argument to respond with other than wavy, repetitive talk about the chaos and terrorism in the south in recent years, as if the control of foreign forces over our military bases was less serious than terrorist groups, or as if those who claimed to have expelled these groups and liberated the south had the right to open the country wide to foreign forces and mortgage its sovereignty to foreign powers.
This is our reality, revealed by events, positions and statements. Our greatest disaster lies in the false elites that promote everyone who possesses the means of power, out of greed for money or position. They justify and defend his crimes and betrayal, and are seized by an incomprehensible frenzy against everyone who opposes them, defending the homeland against the agents.
_______________________
