Damien McElroy
Somewhere around a quarter of the fees that keep the UN going as a global concern come from the US. This level of support is key across all areas – not just in the humanitarian sphere, which gets a lot of attention, but also in its political and diplomatic activities.
The future of the UN will be much discussed over the coming weeks as the 80th General Assembly opens on Tuesday. Just look at the importance of the UN Support Mission in Libya, charged with forging a new national direction, holding the country together while building functioning political systems.
A roadmap presented by the UN Special Representative for Libya, Hanna Tetteh, received backing from the Security Council last week. Not only has Ms Tetteh met the Tripoli government but she has also since been hosted at meetings in eastern Libya with the general army command leadership under Khalifa Haftar. Talking across the divide is something that has invaluable worth for Libya, which has been in tumult since the eruption of protests against Muammar Qaddafi in 2011.
While the effectiveness of its efforts is often questioned, the UN has now laid out a framework for Libya that can be made to work. The next 12 to 18 months should see step changes in the institutions to oversee elections, so that parliamentary and presidential elections can finally be held.
There is a sense of purpose around Ms Tetteh, as she tries to build confidence for an inclusive process that goes through defined phases. Crucial to this is an overhaul of the High National Election Commission, which would set the ground rules for a nationwide vote.
But getting support from the east will be critical to the success of the envoy’s efforts. This summer, Benghazi fell out with the EU when it refused to meet a delegation in a row over parity of esteem vis-a-vis Tripoli. By all accounts, the east is dealing sincerely with Ms Tetteh in her refreshed initiative.
For Libyan politicians such as Ali bin Younes, the country is at a new juncture.
“What distinguishes this initiative – and underscores the seriousness of the UN Mission – is the clear sequencing of steps and deadlines,” Mr Bin Younes said recently. “The first stage sets a two-month time frame to complete the restructuring of [the High National Elections Commission] by finalising its board of directors, ensuring its financial independence, and strengthening its operational capacity.
“In parallel, the legal framework governing elections is to be amended in line with the recommendations of the Advisory Committee. This step effectively places the existing legislative bodies at a crossroads: either demonstrate their ability to perform their duties impartially and contribute constructively to state-building, or face exclusion from any future political process.”
Therein lies the rub. The parallel systems must be enticed into taking a step that entrenched interests, backed by the power of the gun, have so far been immune to embracing.
The UN, meanwhile, needs to ensure that its various institutions work in concert with one another but also with the administration of US President Donald Trump. The US government has done some groundwork in Libya, not least by sending Mr Trump’s special adviser Massad Boulos to Tripoli and Benghazi. A US Navy vessel also docked in Libya not long after the presidential inauguration. Alongside active American diplomacy with Tunisia, Algeria and Egypt, there is a role for Washington to reinforce Ms Tetteh’s talks with the Libyan politicians.
At the same time, it cannot be denied that Tripoli’s peace is currently fragile and on the brink. Western Libyan factions opposed to Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh are under pressure from his loyalist forces to recognise the monopoly of arms. This could lead to an outbreak of clashes of the type seen intermittently since the fall of Qaddafi.
The UN’s role, in bringing renewed support from across the Libyan spectrum, could not be more important
With sensitive facilities – including military bases and the Mitiga prison and airport – at stake, there is a wider risk to the security of the region from any spiral of violence. Mr Dbeibeh is jockeying not only with the authorities and command based in eastern Libyan, but the Tripoli-based Presidential Council could also derail progress.
In the context of political reconciliation, factional confrontation is not helpful. While the Dbeibeh government has close links to Turkey, Ankara also has ties to other parties. Given that this is a sensitive juncture, outside parties might attempt to assert their interests, too.
All this means the centrality of the UN to what happens next in Libya cannot be overstated. The UN’s role, in bringing renewed support from across the Libyan spectrum, could not be more important.
At stake is not only Libya’s resource potential, which somehow remains largely intact but neglected after a decade and a half of national drift. The migrant crisis is deteriorating, too – something that not only reflects the country’s dysfunction but also the dire state of Sudan and the wider Horn of Africa region.
As Mr Bin Younes is keen to stress, the aspirations of Libyans revolve around a stable, unified and resilient state. Fortunately, getting to that point is something the UN is uniquely placed to achieve.
Despite the pressure on the organisation arising from the new world order, and despite the record of failures in Libya going all the way back to Qaddafi’s rule, there is only one roadmap on the table for all sides to get behind.
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