Nova News
A series of converging dynamics suggests that Libya is returning to the center of a broader reshuffling of regional alliances
Amid the Sudanese crisis and growing intra-Arab competition for influence in the Sahel, Libya is once again emerging as a strategic hub in rapidly shifting regional balances. In recent weeks, critical assessments of the Marshal’s role have begun to emerge in Saudi media circles and related commentary circles.
Khalifa Haftar, explicitly referencing the precedent of the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen and the possibility of a reduction in regional support if the Cyrenaica leader does not distance himself from the UAE’s plans. In the absence of official confirmation from Riyadh, these signals remain informal, but they are part of a rapidly changing regional context.
A series of converging dynamics suggests that Libya is returning to the center of a broader reshuffle of regional alliances, in a context that sees the emergence of an increasingly structured confrontation between Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey on the one hand, and the United Arab Emirates, Israel, and a constellation of non-state actors—including the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, Somaliland, and armed networks active in eastern and southern Libya—on the other.
The border triangle and the return
of the Sudan dossier
This is the context of a military incident that occurred in early January in the remote border triangle between Libya, Sudan, and Egypt, which has refocused attention on one of the most sensitive areas of the central Sahara. According to Sudanese sources close to the RSF, consulted by Nova Agency, an armed convoy linked to the Sudanese paramilitary group was reportedly hit by an air raid after crossing the Libyan border.
The operation, informally attributed to the Egyptian Air Force but never officially confirmed, reportedly took place in an area southeast of the city of al-Kufra, far from both Tripoli and Cairo. Sources report that the convoy consisted of dozens of vehicles loaded with fuel, weapons, and military equipment, and that the attack caused significant losses, with most of the vehicles destroyed.
The area represents a strategic corridor for cross-border trafficking between Libya and Sudanese Darfur, including the flow of men, goods, and military supplies, in open violation of the international arms embargo. The incident reportedly occurred on the eve of the visit to Cairo by Saddam Haftar, deputy commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA), received on January 10 by the Egyptian Minister of Defense Abdel Mageed Saqr and by the Chief of Staff of the Egyptian Armed Forces Ahmed Khalifa.
Al Kufra, between maintenance
and political signals
A few days after these developments, the administration of al-Kufra Airport announced the temporary closure of the airport starting from January 19, 2026, for a period of one month, officially to allow for extensive maintenance work on the runway.
The airport serves the eponymous oasis city of al-Kufra, the capital of southeastern Libya, bordering Sudan, Chad, and Egypt, and is the only operational airport in this vast desert region. Precisely because of this location, the closure has implications that go beyond the technical aspect. According to several local sources, the airport has been a key logistical transit point in recent months to Sudan, the site of the civil war between the regular army and the RSF led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.
In this context, the suspension of airport operations is being interpreted as a possible sign of a slowdown in the flow of external support to Sudan, against the backdrop of Egypt’s pressure on Haftar’s forces, who control Cyrenaica and large portions of southern Libya.
The announcement of a closure for “maintenance” therefore appears, according to local observers, to be a diplomatic move useful for freezing sensitive operations without formalizing explicit political positions, especially considering that the airport had already undergone major renovations last May.
Pressure on the leadership of Cyrenaica
According to a Libyan source close to the dossier, the current dynamics would reflect a phase of instability in the relations of the leadership of Cyrenaica – which includes not only Khalifa Haftar, but also his sons Saddam and Khaled, active in the armed forces, while Belqasem Haftar leads the National Reconstruction Fund – between Egypt and Saudi Arabia, on the one hand, and the United Arab Emirates, on the other.
In this context, the month-long closure of al-Kufra airport would be a response to Egyptian pressure, rather than a purely technical measure, although it would not completely interrupt logistical flows to Sudan.
The same source reports that support for the Sudanese theater has not been eliminated, but rather reallocated along alternative routes, particularly fuel supplies. Air support activities linked to the eastern Libyan network have been diverted to other African countries, including Ethiopia, Cameroon, and South Sudan, reducing direct exposure along the Libyan-Sudanese border.
According to this interpretation, Haftar currently has no real scope for breaking with Abu Dhabi, despite growing regional pressure. The link with the United Arab Emirates remains structural, both politically and financially. Libyan sources familiar with the matter emphasize that a significant portion of the financial leverage attributable to the Cyrenaica leadership is controlled by the Emirates, which continues to represent a guarantee of protection and stability for the internal balance of power.
The Field Marshal’s strategy therefore appears to be geared not toward a clear choice of sides, but toward tactically managing opposing pressures through operational adjustments and indirect signals.
The analysis: the shift to the west
In this fluid context, marked by cross-pressures and gradual realignments, analysts’ readings suggest looking above all at territorial dynamics. Jalel Harchaui, an analyst specializing in security dynamics in North Africa and the Sahel, interviewed by Agenzia Nova, the key to understanding this should not be sought in an immediate break between Haftar and his regional sponsors, but rather in a progressive geographical and operational shift towards the West.
“What matters is that Saddam Haftar is moving further west to maintain the strategic corridor that the United Arab Emirates considers active,” says Harchaui. According to the analyst, the Matan al-Sara area, a desert town in southern Libya on the border with Chad, is being transformed into an operational air base, while the passages to Chad and the flow of migrants to Sudan are gradually moving further west, without directly impacting areas like Qatrun, in the deep Fezzan.
“Migration from Sudan passes through Chad and then enters Libya. The effects of the Sudanese war are moving westward, Saddam is moving westward, everyone is moving westward,” the analyst observes. From Tripoli’s perspective, this movement does not pose an immediate threat, at least for now. However, according to Harchaui, the patience of some regional actors may not be infinite, particularly that of Turkey, which has a strong presence in Tripoli and Misrata.
“Throughout 2025, Turkey tried to persuade Saddam to ratify the maritime border agreement. It achieved nothing,” the analyst states, noting that Ankara provided military support, drones, weapons, and political recognition without receiving concrete compensation. In this scenario, Ankara could become more assertive, strengthening its support for forces in western and southwestern Libya, including in Fezzan, with the risk of gradually tightening Saddam Haftar’s political and military grip, in concert with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.
The Algeria factor
The rapprochement between Algeria and Saudi Arabia also contributes to the picture, amidst a cooling of relations between Algeria and the United Arab Emirates. According to some reports, Riyadh is working to build an Arab front based on the principles of state sovereignty and territorial integrity, in contrast to the Emirati approach, perceived as favorable to non-state actors and fragmentation.
In this context, Algeria is increasingly wary of Abu Dhabi’s policies, both on Libya and on other sensitive regional issues. These include Western Sahara, where the United Arab Emirates has taken a clear stance in favor of Moroccan sovereignty, while Algeria has historically supported the Saharawi people’s right to self-determination, in line with United Nations resolutions. This divergence, while not new, is part of a broader context of political and strategic tensions.
At the same time, Algeria is strengthening its dialogue with regional actors who share a more traditional vision of state stability, based on the rejection of external interference and separatist logic.
According to Harchaui, closer alignment between Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey on certain lines cannot be ruled out in the medium term.
It remains to be seen whether this phase of realignments will remain tactical or whether it will mark the beginning of a new regional architecture, in which Libya will once again become not only a competitive arena, but a litmus test of Arab balances in the Sahel.
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