Dr. Ufuk Necat Taşçı
There is no doubt that elections need to be held in Libya. However, the way to hold fair and equitable elections is possible with a constitution drawn up by mutual consent.
There are many hot topics occupying the global agenda. While there is the genocide in Gaza on one side, the Russia-Ukraine war and the tension between Israel and Iran on the other, the process in Libya has remained in the background like many other issues. However, the ongoing activity in Libya for a few weeks has reached a level that should not be ignored due to its possible consequences.
On August 13, the House of Representatives in Eastern Tobruk, backed by Khalifa Haftar, held a vote to end the term of the government of Abdulhamid Dibeiba. The House declared the government of Osama Hammad, based in the east, as the sole “legitimate” government until a new and holistic government is elected. The House of Representatives also declared pro-Haftar Speaker of the House Aqila Saleh as the commander of the “Libyan Armed Forces.” However, according to the Libyan Political Agreement of 2021, this title was to belong to the head of the Presidential Council and two of his deputies until democratic elections were held in the country. A few days after this move, the situation in the country became even more tense when Prime Minister of the Libyan National Unity Government (NUG) Abdulhamid Dibeiba dismissed Siddiq al-Kabir, the Governor of the Central Bank since 2011.
Mutual decisions cause tension
Another known fact is Siddiq al-Kabir’s very close relations with the United States (US) and his anti-Dibeybe stance. These developments were followed by the mobilization of Haftar’s armed militias around Tripoli. In the face of this chain of events, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) made a statement demanding that military conflict be avoided, that the UNSC resolutions in 2023 be adhered to by referring to the 2020 ceasefire agreement, and that the roadmap in the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum be adhered to. While Haftar declared that he did not accept the removal of Kahbir, the eastern-based Hammad Government and Parliament Speaker Saleh decided to halt oil production in the country.
The problems in Libya can be solved by an organization consisting of several actors, including Turkey, first providing the basis for a final agreement on the constitution and then establishing a security mechanism to ensure ballot box security throughout the country during the election process.
Currently, Abdel Fattah Abdel Ghaffar, who was appointed as acting Central Bank Governor by the Presidential Council, is making efforts to prevent a financial crisis in the country and to prevent salary delays. The Libyan High Council of State referred to the Libyan Political Agreement for a permanent solution to this problem and invited all parties to dialogue. The President of the Libyan High Council of State, Mohammed Miftah Takala, warned to hold elections on the basis of the agreements made on March 10 between the Tobruk House of Representatives, the Presidential Council and the High Council of State under the auspices of the Arab League.
Past problems in Libya
These current events, which are clearly difficult to explain in just a few paragraphs, are actually a residue of past promises that were not kept and agreements that were not kept. We can see this contradiction on many occasions, especially on the Eastern (Haftar) side. Despite the ceasefire signed in 2020 and the agreements that followed, Haftar and Haftar supporter Salih, who unilaterally established parallel governments, have long been trying to move the country’s capital from Tripoli to Sirte. Similarly, although the eastern-based parliament and Haftar are trying to create the image that they are not breaking the agreements made to date, it is another known fact that Haftar unilaterally declared the Suheyrat Agreement and the presidential council “illegal” in 2017.
While Kebir’s agreement with the US and his “untouchability” since 2011 are another mystery, the billions of dollars of support Haftar, who reacted to his removal from office, received from Russia as early as 2024 is another issue. Although the Libyan dinars previously printed by Russia were declared “invalid” by the Central Bank of Libya, it is known that these currencies are being used in the market.
In short, the situation in Libya is much more complicated than it seems and is an equation with many unknowns. In a sociology where a population of around 7 million consists of over a hundred tribes and hundreds of armed individual groups, resolving such crises is of course not easy. However, the mistakes that the United Nations (UN) Libya representatives have repeatedly admitted after leaving office, their adherence to bilateral motives with unknown details instead of legitimate authority and agreements signed at the UN, and the network of relations of the US, France and Russia that are contrary to UNSC decisions have brought the process to this point in Libya.
Turkey’s position as one of the decisive forces in the country in this picture may be preventing a war that could have broken out much earlier. However, there are also international actors who are trying to interpret the support that Ankara gave to the UN-backed government at the request of this government, for the benefit of some, through other actors who have established illegitimate relations in the background.
Elections are a must in Libya
There is no doubt that elections need to be organized in Libya. However, holding fair and just elections is possible with a constitution that is prepared by mutual consent. Everyone knows that healthy results cannot be obtained from an election that will take place on the eastern side under the shadow of the weapons of the Haftar militia. In addition, there is the fact that Imad El Sayeh, who has been in office for years despite all the chaos, just like Kebir. Sayeh, the head of the Libyan High Election Commission, has relations with France, another obstacle to a possible “objective” election process. We can say that the fact that France and Egypt called for immediate elections shortly before the current events is closely related to this and is not well-intentioned.
Turkey’s transition to a normalization climate in its new foreign policy dynamics over the last few years has helped it gain more influence in regional events and thus prevent crises. However, other actors need to approach the Libya case with the same sincerity.
Although Haftar and the groups supporting him initially recognized the political authority created by the Libya Political Agreement signed at the UN in 2015, they later opposed the agreement in order not to lose their own questionable legitimacy and moved the House of Representatives from Tripoli to Tobruk. In other words, the legitimacy of the side that currently declares the Dibeybe government illegitimate in Libya should have been put into question long ago. Despite the hypocritical policies that ignore this fact and attribute disproportionate legitimacy to the Eastern side, Turkey is currently seeking to establish a basis for dialogue with both sides. Therefore, the problems in Libya can be solved by an organization consisting of several actors, including Turkey, first providing the ground for a final agreement on the constitution and establishing a security mechanism that will ensure ballot box security throughout the country during the election process. However, the real problem in Libya stems from the fact that other actors, primarily UN officials, the US and Russia, do not really want a solution and are taking advantage of the conflict environment.
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[Dr. Ufuk Necat Taşçı is a faculty member at Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University.]
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