Emanuele Rossi

For the Luiss professor, Russia’s aim in Libya is both to sow an anti-Western narrative and to deepen its activities in Africa (and the two aims are not divided)

Conversation with Collombier

A State Department official corroborates to Agenzia Nova what the investigative project All Eyes On Wagner (Aeow) published in recent days: Russia is using Libya as a logistical and geopolitical platform to support its presence in Africa, which also includes destabilization operations such as those underway in the Sahel.

The data provided by Aeow in recent days — 1,800 men from the Russian Africa Corps are currently deployed between Cyrenaica and Fezzan — confirm reconstructions that months ago had also been anticipated by Formiche.net . Dynamics that are also the result of what Karim Mezran, director of the North Africa Initiative of the Atlantic Council, called “oversights” by the United States and the European Union.

“Since 2014, Russia has demonstrated its ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities to advance its interests in Libya. This is not because Libya occupies a central place in Russia’s foreign and security policy.

However, by expanding its influence in Libya, Moscow is directly challenging Western powers and NATO on their southern flank, while establishing a strategic foothold for its activities on the African continent,” explains Virginie Collombier , scientific coordinator of the Mediterranean Platform, at the School of Government of Luiss Guido Carli.

“While the specific goals Russia is pursuing in Libya remain ambiguous, insights from the past decade suggest that it will likely seek to exploit the regional chaos and the West’s related apathy and loss of credibility to its advantage,” he adds in a conversation with Formiche.net .

According to the professor, it could be a matter of supporting a new offensive by the Benghazi militia leader Khalifa Haftar , or of increasing military activity in the Sahel, while “despite the ongoing diplomatic vacuum following the resignation of the UN special envoy, Abdoulaye Bathily , it seems unlikely that Russia will seek to lead a new diplomatic process. Instead, Moscow is likely to focus on further consolidating its position in the region and, consequently, increasing its ability to pose challenges to Western powers”.

As for Russian support for Haftar, which has been ongoing — in various more or less explicit forms — for almost a decade: were Western actors wrong to consider him a valid interlocutor? “The approach of Western powers towards Haftar has been problematic for several reasons. In particular, by courting the Eastern general, they have revealed the strong contradictions between the values-based policies they profess and their actual transactional approach to Libyan politics,” replies Collombier.

“This is exemplified by the French,” he continues, “who have officially stated their support for the UN-led political process while simultaneously providing military assistance to the Libyan National Army ( Haftar’s militia, ed. ). More recently, Italy’s efforts to secure Haftar’s cooperation in controlling immigration in exchange for material support have highlighted the duplicity of Western actions (opposing a military solution to the conflict while providing direct support to a major warlord).”

For the Luiss professor, this inconsistency has not gone unnoticed in Libya and elsewhere, significantly damaging the image and reputation of Western nations. “On the contrary, Russia’s policies in Libya since 2014 have been characterized by consistency. Moscow’s strategy has focused on seizing emerging opportunities and using hard power to support Haftar and his armed forces.

During the civil wars of 2014 and 2019, Russia exploited the increased instability, indecision, and ineffectiveness of Western powers. Moscow’s clear decision to support the faction that aligns with its vision of restoring power and order has been key to extending its control over strategic infrastructure, including military bases and oil installations, in the eastern and southern parts of the country.”

To date, however, Russia’s expansion of influence in Libya is not attributable solely to the exercise of hard power. “Yes, Moscow is increasingly mobilizing its narrative against Western powers to influence the ‘ global majority .’

This narrative exposes the West’s duplicity and double standards, shedding light on the disastrous consequences of its policies in Libya, the Middle East, and the Sahel. After more than a decade of violence and instability in the region, and against the backdrop of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, this narrative appears to resonate more deeply with local societies.

The decline in the credibility of Western powers is further reinforced by the prevailing perception that the United States and European states have remained largely passive in the midst of crises, in stark contrast to Russia’s perceived military and diplomatic assertiveness.”

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