Sema Kalaycioglu
As of 2024, China has increased its interest in North Africa again and has started a comprehensive opening to the region, especially through Libya. Its approach based on the principle of political neutrality allows it to establish simultaneous relations with the Tobruk and Tripoli administrations. Within the framework of the Belt and Road Project, rail system, energy, infrastructure and port investments come to the fore, while high-cost initiatives such as the Benghazi Metro Project are a symbol of China’s return to Libya. …
Return to Libya
China’s interest in North Africa has increased again as of 2024. The Trump administration’s lack of focus on the region has paved the way for new initiatives for Beijing. With Libya, which needs support, meeting this interest, political and military contacts, especially economic projects, have started to revive since the spring of 2023. China’s Libya policy is based on the principle of political neutrality.
This approach offers the opportunity to establish simultaneous relations with the Tobruk and Tripoli administrations. Although it does not seem possible to achieve reconciliation between the two sides in the short term, it can contribute to the reduction of tensions through investments in housing, infrastructure, employment and industry.
In particular, the rail system investments to be initiated within the scope of the Belt and Road Project will not only strengthen the logistical ties between Tobruk and Tripoli, but will also enable regional integration for Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt, which has not been implemented for a long time. Thus, China will also gain access to new market opportunities.
Concrete project initiatives have been on the agenda under the umbrella of the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF) for the past year. China, which effectively used Libya’s influence on the African Union during the Gaddafi era, aims to revive this legacy by increasing its influence in Libya today. Although economic goals seem to be a priority in Beijing’s Libya policy, the political consequences cannot be ignored.
China’s orientation towards development projects simultaneously with Tobruk and Tripoli meets the common interest of different political groups within the country in the reconstruction processes. While this approach has the potential to reduce the influence of Western Europe in the region, it also carries the risk of the US-China rivalry moving to North Africa via Libya. In this context, it remains unclear whether Washington will turn to an intervention again.
Multiple Projects and Investment Areas
China is acting with a long-term strategy rather than taking unplanned steps in Libya. It has simultaneously submitted project proposals to central and local governments and diversified them. Within the framework of the Belt and Road Project, infrastructure investments, renewable energy initiatives, renewal of oil pipelines, increasing refinery capacities and port construction are prominent topics.
In eastern Libya, the Libyan Fund for Development and Reconstruction, established by Khalifa Haftar to rebuild the infrastructure destroyed by the floods, is trying to attract Chinese investments to the country. In this context, the Chinese BFI Consortium has put solar power plants, water treatment plants and railway line projects that will connect Benghazi to the city of Musaid on the border with Egypt on the agenda.
In addition, the Benghazi Metro Project, which is planned to be largely financed by China and whose cost is estimated to be 24-30 billion euros, draws attention. The implementation of the project in cooperation with China Railways International Group Company (CRI), Germany’s Siemens and Britain’s Arup International Engineering Company will be one of the first examples of China-Europe partnership in North Africa. In addition, housing and workplace projects in Derna and Benghazi have also come to the fore.
Security Dimension
For China, Libya is important not only economically but also geopolitically. It has a strategic location, especially in terms of being an alternative to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) announced in 2023.
In this context, China has included Algeria and Tunisia in the scope of the Belt and Road Project. Excluding Turkey from IMEC may make it attractive for Ankara to support China’s expansion into North Africa. However, the fact that Turkey’s military presence in Libya remains relatively in the background makes the possibility in this direction uncertain.
China’s opening up to Africa is not limited to economic initiatives; The security dimension is also becoming more and more prominent. Beijing, which has developed military and security cooperation with more than 100 countries within the framework of the Global Security Initiative, carries out military training activities with Egypt, Algeria and Sudan. Although there is no clear agenda for direct arms sales yet, this possibility cannot be ruled out in the long term. The concretization of China-Libya military cooperation in the near future is not limited to Libya but can reshape the balances in North Africa.
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