Francis Petronella
Haftar’s troops’ maneuvers on the border with Algeria and the power struggle for control of the Central Bank are worrying, while the political-military impasse risks moving on to new instability.
An endless stalemate, which however could lead to an escalation at any moment . 13 years after the fall of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, who governed with a mix of iron fist and co-management of power, Libya does not seem to find peace and today finds itself divided and, in essence, increasingly neglected by the major agendas of international politics. In recent weeks, the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by General Khalifa Haftar, has launched a series of maneuvers and patrols in western Libya , generating tensions in the West and concerns in neighboring Algeria, in violation of the 2020 ceasefire agreement.
Haftar’s forces, who dominate Cyrenaica, assure that these are not destabilizing actions , but the initiative comes at a time already marked by tensions between factions, after the House of Representatives in Tobruk – the political body of the East – appointed an interim prime minister in May , in open competition with the UN-recognized executive (GNU) led by Abdulhamid Dbeibah . The authorities in Tripoli have instead torpedoed the governor of the Libyan Central Bank , one of the few actors together with the National Oil Company (NOC) that in recent years have openly dialogued with both factions fighting for power.
New escalation?
The first to denounce the tense situation was the acting UN envoy for Libya, Stephanie Khoury, in office since the UN Special Representative for Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, resigned last April. In a briefing to the UN Security Council on Tuesday, in fact, she highlighted that in the last two months the situation in Libya has deteriorated rather rapidly in terms of political, economic and security stability .
“Unilateral actions by Libyan political, military and security actors have increased tension , further entrenched institutional and political divisions and complicated efforts for a negotiated solution,” Khoury explained.
On August 9, the diplomat pointed out, Haftar’s forces moved unilaterally towards the southwestern areas of Libya , pushing the Western military – linked to the Tripoli government – to “affirm their readiness to respond to any attack”, in a strategic area for both migratory flows and hydrocarbons . Saddam Haftar, who together with his brother Belqasem plays an increasingly active role in place of his elderly father Khalifa (80 years old), has declared that the military movements of the LNA in the West are aimed solely at “protecting the borders and strengthening national security”.
In fact, the forces of the East these days are also engaged in operations on the border with Chad and Niger , a gold mining and smuggling area.
Who’s in charge in Libya?
The map of power in Libya today is extremely complex , with increasingly intertwined political and military actors and interests. To put it very simply, the country is now in the hands of two rival coalitions: on one side there is the internationally recognized GNU of Tripoli, supported above all by Turkey and Qatar and supported by the High Council of State and the Presidential Council (in the absence of a real president); on the other there is the Tobruk House of Representatives and the so-called Government of National Stability (GSN), which since May has even had a prime minister – Osama Hammad – installed in Benghazi in open competition with Dbeibah .
International analysts and observers, however, agree that the institutions of the east are nothing more than the political umbrella behind which hides the true dominus of the area: General Haftar and his LNA, considered very close to Russia.
To break the political deadlock, former UN envoy Bathily had proposed, in early 2023, a plan to hold legislative and presidential elections within the year . However, the plan foundered and the diplomat resigned this year , leaving the interim leadership of the UN mission in Libya to the American Khoury.
The bank of discord?
Libya’s political fragmentation became evident earlier this week when authorities in Tripoli unilaterally fired the powerful governor of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) , an abrupt move that is likely to further inflame tensions in the North African country. Governor Sadiq al-Kabir, who had headed the institution since the fall of Gaddafi, was removed by decree of the Presidential Council in Tripoli and replaced by Mohamed Abdul Salam al-Shukri, an economist and former deputy governor.
The CBL is one of the few institutions that have so far acted as a bridge between east and west , making Al-Kabir a key figure. Although the bank is based in Tripoli, as is Dbeibah’s government, both Libyan outfits worked with the former governor to keep oil funds in circulation and government salaries paid. It is not possible to say for sure, but the move is thought to be driven by deteriorating relations between Al-Kabir and Dbeibah .
According to some theories , Kabir feared being replaced, and for this reason he had “drawn closer” to the Cyrenaica faction. The fact is, however, that the political struggle did not spare an institution that, by managing the hydrocarbon revenues, had managed to get along more or less with everyone.
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The comment by Caterina Roggero , ISPI MENA Centre
“The situation of relative calm in Libya over the last four years should not lead one to think that a definitive peace has been gradually achieved for the country. Despite the absence of major clashes between the West and the East of the country since the ceasefire in 2020, neither on one side nor the other can the situation be defined as resolved, nor is the long-awaited reunification of the country close.
The main problems that grip the populations of the two regions and that have worsened in this four-year period are two: the high rate of corruption and the militarization of the territory.
Two factors that have made Libya a “mafia state” dominated by political and military elites who only follow their own interests, without having the slightest interest in reaching an agreement, as the UN Special Envoy Bathily disconsolately declared in his farewell speech.
Not to be underestimated, in this context, is the increased presence of the now approximately 1800 Russian mercenaries present in Cyrenaica in support of Haftar. These two major critical issues are connected to the latest events and may be the basis of an escalation towards a civil war that in fact has never ended”.
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Francis Petronella, Digital Journalist and Content Creator. A professional journalist since 2021, he works as a digital journalist for the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI).
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