Author - ab_mnbr

Jalel Harchaoui and Bernardo Mariani

Methodology

The authors used a mixed methodology to produce this report. A literature review of secondary sources related to Libya’s political analysis and security situation, including international media reports and specialist publications, was combined with primary-source data acquired through six semi-structured interviews. Read More

Samy Magdy

A video has emerged on social media of a 15-year-old Sudanese refugee boy being tormented by gunmen in Libya demanding ransom. Read More

Jalel Harchaoui and Bernardo Mariani

Abstract

After ousting Colonel Moammar Gadhafi from power in 2011 with the aid of a NATO bombing campaign, the Libyan rebel groups that fought the autocrat turned on each other in a struggle to fill the country’s power vacuum. This led to several bouts of civil war, a proliferation of armed groups, and additional foreign military interventions. Read More

At least 32 people killed and 159 more wounded in the clashes amid fears of escalating violence in the country divided between rival governments. Read More

Gregory Aftandilian

Following the postponement of national elections in December 2021, which were supposed to usher in a new, unified government, Libya has again reverted to two opposing political camps backed by their respective militias. Read More

Wolfram Lacher

Conclusions:

Explaining Choices and Shifts in Local Elites’ Strategies

After the fall of the Qadhafi regime, Libya’s local elites gradually coalesced into two rival camps, provoking escalating violent conflicts. As of December 2014, competing claims to legitimacy had forestalled the establishment of a broadly accepted political order. The return to a single government will depend on whether local interests can realign themselves from two polarized camps to a loose and heterogeneous coalition at the centre. Read More

Imad K. Harb

Once again, Libya is falling victim to its political elites’ failure to agree on a long-awaited election mechanism and constitutional provisions that would secure the country’s transition to a functioning democracy after the collapse of former dictator Muammar Qaddafi’s regime in 2011. Read More

Wolfram Lacher

Tobruk: capitalizing on the Margins

An oil port with a population of around 180,000 and located close to the Egyptian border, Tobruk had seen a thriving smuggling economy develop since the 1970s. In the late Qadhafi era, managing that economy became a main focus of the local elite, in addition to controlling the levers of the administration to direct state funds and to appropriate land. Read More

Petroleum profits, control and fragility in Libya

Matt Herbert and Emadeddin Badi

CONCLUSION

Libya’s hydrocarbon economy is essential for the state and for society, with profits from the sale of oil and natural gas allowing for the provision of state services, and the continuation of economic activity, even during the current period of prolonged instability. Read More

Wolfram Lacher

Bani Walid: counter-revolution and Its Enemies

The homeland of the Warfalla, one of Libya’s largest tribes, and a city of 80,000 residents lacking a strong economic base, Bani Walid became one of the biggest losers of the revolution. Bani Walid’s elite had been inextricably linked with the Qadhafi-era bureaucracy and security apparatus. Qadhafi had begun courting the tribe’s leaders following a 1975 coup attempt led by a Misratan officer. Read More

Petroleum profits, control and fragility in Libya

Matt Herbert and Emadeddin Badi

Operational realities in the field

Mapping the formal structure of the PFG and its units provides a useful guide for understanding the entity as a whole. However, because of the hybridity and accompanying localization of the force post-2011, this structure has only limited salience on what protection of oil and gas infrastructure looks like in the field. Read More

Wolfram Lacher

Misrata’s push for national dominance

A port city with a population of 300,000 and a key hub for Libya’s import and retail sectors, Misrata became a major political and military power centre through the revolution thanks to the financial clout and cohesion of its business elite. Read More

Petroleum profits, control and fragility in Libya

Matt Herbert and Emadeddin Badi

THE ROLE OF THE PETROLEUM FACILITIES GUARD (PFG)

The salience of oil and gas to Libya’s stability, and the political instrumentalization of it, heightens the importance of the actors and entities nominally tasked with securing the resource against diversion. Read More

Petroleum profits, control and fragility in Libya

Matt Herbert and Emadeddin Badi

IMPACT OF OIL AND GAS RESOURCES ON STATE FRAGILITY

Libya is often regarded as a textbook case of a rentier state suffering from a resource course due to its overreliance on the export of natural resources – chiefly, oil – as part of its broader political economy. Read More

Wolfram Lacher

ABSTRACT

In Post-revolutionary Libya, the collaps of central authority and the fragentation of territoria control have produced a fundamental change in the political elite. Local elites emerged as the leading actors and held the key to whether central authority would be re-established. Read More

Petroleum profits, control and fragility in Libya

Matt Herbert and Emadeddin Badi

INTRODUCTION

For the past decade, Libya has been a deeply fragile state. Disputes over political control and legitimacy have birthed several competing governments and centres of authority. At the sub-state level, political competition and tension are a mainstay in many areas, fuelling conflict between ethnic and tribal groups, and within these groups. Read More

Hafed Al-Ghwell

After years of pervasive instability, the world is quickly running out of adjectives to accurately describe the multifaceted and multidimensional crises in Libya spawned during the chaotic decade following the collapse of Muammar Qaddafi’s 42-year regime in 2011. Read More

Frederica Saini Fasanotti

The Libyan government is deeply split. The torn country now has two cabinets and acting prime ministers, but democratic elections remain a chimera. Read More