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Tripoli, a city once again brimming with life

Mathieu Galtier

A year and a half after Khalifa Haftar’s offensive ended, and a little over a month before a possible presidential election, Tripoli has been reborn. However, this rebirth has not lessened the Libyan capital’s endemic ills. Read More

Libya’s Fragile Peace Is A Major Oil Market Risk

 Simon Watkins 

  • The relentless oil price is causing economic havoc around the world, and Libya represents a major supply risk that could send prices even higher.
  • The recent failed attempt by Bashagha to take power in Tripoli has heightened tensions in the country and could lead to significant supply outages.
  • Until there is genuine progress on the issue of fair distribution of oil revenues within the country, this risk of major supply outages will continue to plague.

Read More

Libya — a tale of two governments, again

Hafed Al-Ghwell

A troubling sense of deja vu has settled over Libya in recent months, following the escalations that capped the failure last year to hold general elections and finally end a senseless struggle between rival governments with self-proclaimed mandates over post-Muammar Qaddafi life in the country. Read More

The Libya powder magazine is in danger of exploding

Stefano Stefanini|

While the European spotlight is on Putin’s war in Ukraine, a powder keg threatens to explode a few miles from the Italian coast. Now is the time to deal with Libya. In your interest and ours. The comment of the ambassador Stefano Stefanini. Read More

Libya’s Transition Out of Civil War Has Stalled

Mary Fitzgerald

Libyans could be forgiven for feeling an uneasy sense of déjà vu in recent months. Last year many had hoped the country was finally moving on from a long struggle between rival authorities. But the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity, or GNU, that was established in 2021 as part of the United Nations-led political process has been challenged since March by a rival government appointed through a disputed parliamentary vote. Read More

Libya needs a realistic endgame

Oussama Romdhani

It took a failed attempt by Bashagha to force his way into Tripoli last month to draw international attention to the Libyan crisis after it had been dwarfed by the Ukraine war. Read More

The role of the EU in the Libyan conflict since 2011 (2)

Stefano Marcuzzi

Since 2011, the EU role in the Libyan conflict has been characterized by an almost acritical faith in soft power, and in a strict adherence to the principles of UN political leadership and Libyan ownership. Unfortunately, soft power proved insufficient to stabilize Libya, the UN was too often paralyzed by veto-players, and the local ownership principle turned out to be a double-edged sword. Early EU failures magnified intra-EU divisions, making EU action even less consistent. This allowed external players to expand into Libya and ultimately overshadow the EU. The Union can invert the trend only by deciding to play a stronger political role. Read More

Shifting Patterns of Arab Politics (2)

Lisa Anderson

Over the last seventy-five years, the endlessly shifting coalitions on the chessboard of Arab regional politics seem to have played by the same rules of the game. Yet, as private interests have become a major source of political power, there have been major changes in the powers and purposes of the players. Read More

Amid violence, Libya’s crisis shows no signs of abating

For many Libyans, the clashes that erupted in the capital of Tripoli last month, sporadically recurring ever since, were an all too familiar deja vu of street fighting, reverberating gunfire and people cowering inside their homes. A video circulated online showing a man shouting from a mosque loudspeaker “Enough war, we want our young generation!” Read More

The role of the EU in the Libyan conflict since 2011 (1)

Stefano Marcuzzi1

Since 2011, the EU role in the Libyan conflict has been characterized by an almost acritical faith in soft power, and in a strict adherence to the principles of UN political leadership and Libyan ownership. Unfortunately, soft power proved insufficient to stabilize Libya, the UN was too often paralyzed by veto-players, and the local ownership principle turned out to be a double-edged sword. Early EU failures magnified intra-EU divisions, making EU action even less consistent. This allowed external players to expand into Libya and ultimately overshadow the EU. The Union can invert the trend only by deciding to play a stronger political role. Read More

Consequences of US-NATO military intervention in Libya

Shane Quinn

Gaddafi had managed to maintain the structure of the Libyan nation, since his assumption of power in 1969. Following Gaddafi’s fall, the Brazilian author Moniz Bandeira wrote that Libya as a state “had disappeared. Real power was represented by 60 sectarian and tribal militias, armed and in conflict with each other. Read More

The Fight For Democracy Means A Plan B For Libya

Lord Aamer Sarfraz

In Ukraine, the West has received a much overdue wake-up call and is kicking its foreign policy back into gear. The fight for Ukraine is a microcosm of a larger fight, for our own security and for a rules-based international order that has an unrivalled track record in creating peace, stability and prosperity. The stakes have never been higher.  Read More

Shifting Patterns of Arab Politics (1)

Lisa Anderson

 Over the last seventy-five years, the endlessly shifting coalitions on the chessboard of Arab regional politics seem to have played by the same rules of the game. Yet, as private interests have become a major source of political power, there have been major changes in the powers and purposes of the players. Read More

Libya grapples with mounting food costs, diminishing oil revenues

Elia Preto Martini

Like most of its North African peers, Libya has been grappling with rising wheat costs  following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. Combined with the April blockade of a number of oil plants, the country is particularly vulnerable and unable to benefit from the global rise in oil prices. Read More

Divided again, Libya slides back toward violence, chaos

Samy Magdy

For many Libyans, clashes that erupted in the capital of Tripoli last month were all too familiar — a deja vu of street fighting, reverberating gunfire and people cowering inside their homes. A video circulated online on the day, showing a man shouting from a mosque loudspeaker “Enough war, we want our young generation!” Read More

Rival Governments Claim Power in Libya

On May 17 – five months after the cancellation of national elections planned for December 24—divisions in Libya worsened when supporters of rival governments established by leaders in the east and west clashed in Tripoli. Read More

Libya’s Transition Out of Civil War Has Stalled

Mary Fitzgerald

Libyans could be forgiven for feeling an uneasy sense of déjà vu in recent months. Last year many had hoped the country was finally moving on from a long struggle between rival authorities. But the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity, or GNU, that was established in 2021 as part of the United Nations-led political process has been challenged since March by a rival government appointed through a disputed parliamentary vote. Read More

Reuniting Libya, Divided Once More

Libya is once again stuck in a standoff between two rival executives. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022 – Spring Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to host consultations among foreign ministers of countries engaged in Libya, push the UN Security Council to appoint a new special representative and encourage the opposing factions to reach agreement on a state budget. Read More

Russian mercenaries accused over use of mines and booby traps in Libya

UN investigators say Wagner Group fighters did not mark mines’ positions and may have rigged bomb to teddy bear

Jason Burke

UN investigators say Wagner Group fighters did not mark mines’ positions and may have rigged bomb to teddy bear. Russian mercenaries in Libya systematically broke international law by laying mines in civilian areas without any attempt to mark their location or remove the lethal devices, UN investigators have found. Read More